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Février 2019

31

AGEFI Luxembourg

Fonds d’investissement

B

ien que les statistiques

économiques publiées

continuent de confir-

mer la thèse du ralentisse-

ment de la conjoncture

mondiale, une récession ne

semble pas pour autant

imminente dans la plupart

des pays. Ceci est l’opinion

de Guy Wagner (cf. por-

trait), chief investment offi-

cer de BLI - Banque de

Luxembourg Investments, et

son équipe, dans leur analyse

mensuelle, les ‘Highlights*’.

Aux Etats-Unis, le marché de l’emploi

demeure robuste, les créations

d’emploi ayant été parti-

culièrement fortes en

janvier malgré la ferme-

ture partielle du gouver-

nement.

En Europe, le ralentisse-

ment est plus explicite, «le

PIB de la zone euro ayant

augmenté de seulement 0,2%

en glissement trimestriel au

cours des trois derniers mois de l’année

passée, le rythme le plus lent depuis

quatre ans», indique Guy

Wagner, chief investment offi-

cer et administrateur-direc-

teur de la société de gestion

BLI - Banque de Luxem-

bourg Investments.

«La croissance japonaise

demeure fortement tribu-

taire de l’issue du conflit

sino-américain, découra-

geant les dépenses d’inves-

tissement de la Chine et, par

conséquent, la demande de

biens d’équipement fabriqués

au Japon.»

En Chine, les autorités

publiques réagis-

sent au ralen-

tissement

économi-

que par des

mesures de

s t imu l a t i on

d’ordre moné-

taire et fiscal sus-

ceptibles d’avoir

un impact favo-

rable sur la crois-

sance vers le

milieu de l’année.

Les Etats-Unis et l’Europe gardent

leur politique monétaire inchangée

Conformément aux attentes, la Réserve fédé-

rale américaine a laissé inchangés ses taux

d'intérêt à l'issue de la première réunion du

comité monétaire cette année, la borne supé-

rieure du taux des fonds fédéraux restant à

2,5%. «Les autorités monétaires ont toutefois

modifié le message sur leurs intentions futures,

indiquant qu'elles se montreraient dorénavant

patiente pour relever leurs taux d'intérêt, alors

que précédemment, elles avaient affirmé leur

volonté de garder en place la trajectoire haus-

sière», souligne l’économiste luxembourgeois.

Comme justification, le président Jerome Powell

a cité les multiples contre-courants conjonctu-

rels tels que le ralentissement des économies chi-

noise et européenne, les incertitudes entourant le

Brexit, la guerre commerciale avec la Chine et la

fermeture partielle du gouvernement américain.

En Europe, le conseil des gouverneurs de la

Banque centrale européenne n’a apporté aucun

changement à sa politique monétaire lors de la

première réunion de l’année.

Les marchés boursiers ont

fortement rebondi en janvier

Après la correction importante en décembre, les

marchés boursiers ont fortement rebondi en jan-

vier. Ainsi, les indices principaux ont tous enre-

gistré des performances largement positives.

«Au niveau sectoriel, le rebond a également été

assez homogène, le meilleur secteur ayant été

celui de l’énergie, alors que même celui des ser-

vices publics, la lanterne rouge, s’est considé-

rablement redressé.»

Les rendements des emprunts d’Etat

poursuivant leur tendance baissière

En janvier, le rebond important des marchés

boursiers n’a pas entraîné un retournement de

situation sur les marchés obligataires, les rende-

ments des emprunts d’Etat poursuivant leur ten-

dance baissière. Ainsi, le rendement du bon du

Trésor américain à 10 ans a légèrement reculé,

alors que les taux de référence à 10 ans dans la

zone euro se sont même davantage détendus.

«Les perspectives de ralentissement économique

et de réduction supplémentaire des pressions

inflationnistes maintiennent les taux longs à de

faibles niveaux», conclut Guy Wagner.

* Les analystes de BLI autour de Guy Wagner publient

mensuellement les «Highlights» et commentent les der-

niers développements boursiers ainsi que l’impact potentiel

et futur sur les marchés. Une publication complémentaire

est «Perspectives», l’analyse trimestrielle des marchés

financiers.

Une récession demeure peu probable

en dépit du ralentissement économique

By Tom BROWN, Partner, Global and UK

Head of Asset Management at KPMG

T

he start of 2019 is looking

tough – markets are down,

geopolitical risks high but

it’s also one in which we believe

the asset management industry

can thrive. China holds conside-

rable opportunity, notwithstan-

ding trade disputes; the trend

toward sustainable investment

has room to run, with better

defined standards; and asset

managers are creating value

through technology. The follo-

wing are the top 10 trends that I

think will have the greatest

influence this year for the asset

management industry.

1. Competition for China heats up

By all accounts, 2019will be an exciting

year for China’s asset management

industry. On the domestic front, firms

will experience intense competition –

and more innovation – as they fight to

protect and capture market share.

New rules related to the way Chinese

banks manage client assets and recent

efforts to stimulate the stock market

should also catalyze significant activi-

ty. Viewed against a backdrop of a

slowing economy, thismay seem like a

difficult environment for foreign play-

ers. However, our view is there will

still be significant opportunities for

those players able to bring amore con-

sumer-focused and digitally-enabled

proposition to the market. Ownership

requirements on foreign asset man-

agers have also changed, and that is

creating new opportunities for many

players. Stay tuned for a raft of new

partnership announcements between

bigger global brands andChina’s tech-

nology leaders this year.

2. PE continues strong run

Last year, was another strong year for

PE with buyout volumes in Americas

and Europe both at record highs.

Investor confidence appears to remain

very robust with another solid year of

fundraising (albeit a little off the excep-

tional volumes of 2017) and hence the

stock of dry powder to supporting

ongoing investment activity remain at

record levels. The situation in Asia

Pacific is slightlydifferent, deal volumes

in recent years have yet to grow in line

with exceptionally strong fundraising

resulting in dry powder growing sub-

stantially. While understanding the

advantages of PE as a source of capital

inthe regionhas increasedconsiderably,

leading managers will still need to con-

tinue their efforts to broaden PE’s

appeal as a capital solution, particularly

at the larger deal sizes. This will ensure

the market grows to absorb the com-

mitted capital. High asset prices contin-

ue to be seen in themarket andnoware

probably higher up the list of macro

concerns as PE transitions frombeing a

net seller of assets having largely

cleared the post financial crisis exit

backlog into a conveniently high

priced market over the last few years.

However, few expect imminent mate-

rial correction and have therefore been

puttingmore efforts into being innova-

tive in creating more value in the port-

folio. Increased use of digital technolo-

gy and big data are assisting here. The

PE investment model has a long track

record of outperforming other asset

classes, particularly public markets,

and while market conditions remain

challenging, we anticipate this out-per-

formance to continue throughout 2019.

3. Sustainabilitymeasurement

getsmore sophisticated

Over the last fewyears, Environmental,

Social and Governance (ESG) priorities

finally took their place on the assetman-

agement agenda. This year, the real

work continues as regulators start to

more clearly define their expectations

for the industry. Some markets are

already working towards creating stan-

dardized taxonomies and disclosure

requirements. Many are considering

howtodrive thisdown to the consumer

level to ensure that asset managers are

taking their clients’ ESGpreferences into

account. Expect many to place much

greater focus on integrating ESG data

points into their investment processes

and client reporting.

4.Managers start looking

for value in their technology

In 2019, we expect to see more asset

managers connect their technologydots

in ways that unlock an entirely new

level of agility, efficiency and value. For

some, this will start with basic cloud

enablement – a fundamental require-

ment for digital enablement to deliver

on today’s customer expectations. The

leaders, on the other hand, will likely

spend this year creating roadmaps and

executing strategies that drive

improved integration across the back,

middle and front office. This will allow

them to not only unblock process road-

blocks, optimize technologies and elim-

inate redundancies, it should also lead

to some strong competitive advantages.

5. The regulatory scopewidens

All signs suggest that the asset man-

agement sector will continue to see

increasing regulatory oversight, partic-

ularly related to systemic risk and

investor protection, such as leverage

and costs. What may be surprising for

some asset managers will be the grow-

ing demand (from regulators, govern-

ments and investors) to deliver on a

basket of non-financial concerns. Some

will be focused on encouraging more

diversity within management compa-

ny boards. Others will want to see

greater disclosure on their funds’ ESG

impacts. Most will start to clarify how

they plan to regulate an industry that

continues to grow and is becoming

increasingly digital.

6. The definitionof infrastructure

investment broadens

Over the past few years, in order to

deploy their increasing capital into the

largest possible universe of assets, we

have seen a growing number of fund

managers start to (1) invest directly, (2)

explore non-core markets such as

Eastern Europe and Asia, (3) expand

the definition of what constitutes an

‘infrastructure’ asset to include, for

example, care homes, data centers and

telecom assets and (4) compete with

corporates in the energy sector, offshore

wind being a hot spot for larger

investors. This year, as well as the

deployment of capital, we expect to see

many infrastructure investors continu-

ing to focus on building up the capabil-

ities and experience required to ensure

their new basket of diversified assets

are delivering the rates of return they

anticipated. Data, analytics, scenario

planning and a robust investor com-

municationplanwill also be key so that

they are able tomanage the rise of pop-

ulism and increased public scrutiny as

to how theymanage public assets.

7. Real Estate investors

get serious about data

This year, expect more focus on data

and leveraging technology for analyt-

ics. Indeed, rather than just relying on

experience and understanding of the

markets and cycles, real estate

investors are starting to place increas-

ing value on data-driven decision-

making tools and processes. Some real

estate investors will be focusing on

finding the right balance of future

investments to ride out the next cycle.

Others are looking for unexpected

trends that may uncover new sources

of competitive advantage. Those with

operational real estate investments

will also be keen to turn their data into

operational efficiencies and better

yields. Operatorswill be evolving their

business model and new shifts in tech-

nology will change the behavior of

both landlords and tenants.

8. Institutional investors

start to tell their story

Against a backdrop of increased pro-

tectionism and nationalism, many

institutional investors are finding

some foreign investmentmarkets to be

increasingly challenging (particularly

when it comes to foreign investments

into core infrastructure assets). In

response, we expect to see some insti-

tutional investors start to communi-

cate more directly with the public and

with authorities about the benefits

their investments can deliver and

greater engagement with regulators

and governments. This year, expect to

hear institutional investors communi-

cating their keymessages to the public.

9. ETFplayers becomemore active

The ETF market continues to show

strong signs of positive growth and

many assetmanagers are starting to rec-

ognize ETFs as an important part of the

digital product offering. Yet, until today,

the market has largely been dominated

by big passive players. This year, we

expect some of the more active players

to start to enter theETForiginationmar-

ket in earnest. Somewill focus ondevel-

opingmore activeETFproducts. Others

will focus on more specialist product

offerings. One thing is clear: ETF mar-

kets have got further to go. The oppor-

tunities for asset managers to play a

more active role are significant.

10.Wealthmanagers

embrace newmodels

The outlook for wealth management is

strong, driven by rising levels of private

wealth and the threat of significantly

underfunded retirement savings. Yet,

while it is clear that demand for the

industry’s core activities remains strong,

our view suggests that – in the short-

term–challengesrelatedtocurrentmar-

ket uncertainty and volatility may start

to dampen investor sentiment this year.

In the longer-term, we expect to see the

industry start to fundamentally rethink

the economics of its business and oper-

ating models to take advantage of new

digital opportunities while also

responding to growing demand for

increased transparency. New digital-

first and hybrid models will proliferate

and,whiletheymaynotbedisruptivein

andof themselves, theywill start toraise

the bar for client experience and cost

which, inturn,willdrive increasedcom-

petition in the industry.

Top 10 trends in asset management for 2019

Obligations

au 31/01 au 31/12

Var Plus haut

Plus bas

EUR AlticeLux 7,25% 15/05/2022

98,830 93,440 5,76 % 99,080 91,800

EUR BNPParibas 4,875% pp

102,880 102,402 0,46 % 103,000 102,000

NZD BNPParibas 5,875% 04/12/2019 102,843 102,983 -0,13 % 102,981 102,759

USD Colombia 8,375% 15/02/2027

118,030 117,105 0,79 % 120,630 114,000

USD DeutscheBank 2% 04/02/2019

99,865 99,765 0,10 % 99,865 99,559

USD DeutscheBank 2,2% 17/11/2020 95,170 95,810 -0,66 % 96,050 95,040

EUR EFSF 2,625% 02/05/2019

100,770 101,040 -0,26 % 101,030 100,760

EUR ENI 3,75% 27/06/2019

101,556 101,918 -0,35 % 101,940 101,556

USD GazCapital 8,625% 28/04/2034 126,514 123,848 2,15 % 127,250 124,219

EUR GiePsaTresor 6% 19/09/2033

123,680 120,449 2,68 % 123,935 117,247

EUR HeidelbergFinLu 7,5%

03/04/2020

108,317 109,009 -0,63 % 108,983 108,296

EUR Lafarge 4,75% 23/03/2020

105,180 105,460 -0,26 % 105,538 105,000

EUR Luxembourg 2,125% 10/07/2023 110,740 110,675 0,05 % 110,991 110,485

EUR Luxembourg 2,25% 19/03/2028 116,525

-

-

116,525 115,155

EUR Luxembourg 2,25% 21/03/2022 108,321 108,561 -0,22 % 108,618 108,277

EUR Luxembourg 2,75% 20/08/2043 143,669

-

-

EUR Luxembourg 3,375% 18/05/2020 105,030 105,462 -0,41 % 105,434 105,024

EUR NovoBanco 100 09/04/2052

16,040 16,424 -2,33 % 16,523 16,030

EUR NyrstarNlHlds 8,5% 15/09/2019

48,686 43,599 11,66 % 48,686 42,840

USD PetroVenezuela 12,75%

17/02/2022

27,000

-

-

USD PetroVenezuela 5,375%

12/04/2027

25,522 15,075 69,30 % 25,894 14,850

USD PetroVenezuela 5,5% 12/04/2037 25,969 15,241 70,38 % 25,983 15,020

EUR RaiffeisenBkInt 6% 16/10/2023

116,216 115,588 0,54 % 116,216 115,194

USD TelecomItaliaCa 7,2% 18/07/2036 97,221 96,458 0,79 % 99,747 95,160

EUR TelecomItaliaFi 7,75% 24/01/2033 120,486 125,002 -3,61 % 125,452 119,313

USD Turkey 7,375% 05/02/2025

104,748 103,437 1,26 % 104,748 100,617

USD Venezuela 11,75% 21/10/2026

31,974 24,920 28,30 % 34,658 24,469

EUR VWIntlFin 5,125% pp

107,635 103,631 3,86 % 107,635 102,275

EUR ØRSTED A/S 6,25% 26/06/3013 114,335 112,133 1,96 % 114,777 111,560