AGEFI Luxembourg - novembre 2023

Novembre 2023 37 AGEFI Luxembourg Fonds d’investissement ParDarrelL SPENCE, économiste et directeur de recherche sein de Capital Group A chaque client que je rencon- tre, la question revient : «Est- ce que le niveau élevé de la dette publique américaine vous préoccupe ?». Et je réponds toujours, demanière quelque peu désinvolte,mais hon- nête : «Cela deviendra unproblème quand cela deviendra unproblème.» En d'autres termes, il faudra s'inquiéter lorsque les inves- tisseurs américains et étran- gers décideront qu'ils ne veu- lent plus détenir de bons du Trésor américain. Reste à savoir si, et quand, ce jour viendra. Dans tous les cas, c'est déjà arrivé à d'autres pays, à unmomentoùleurniveaud'endettementestdevenu supérieur à leur produit intérieur brut (PIB). Eneffet, dès lors que les taux d'intérêt dépassent le taux de croissance d'une économie, les revenus supplémen- taires générés au cours d'une annéedeviennent infé- rieurs aux intérêts sur la dette, laquelle semet donc à croîtremécaniquement.Or,lesÉtats-Unissontencore loin de cette situation, dumoins pour lemoment. D'après les prévisions du Congressional Budget Office (CBO), la dette publique américaine pourrait dépasser 100%du PIB en 2024 et augmenter rapide- mentaucoursdesdécenniessuivantes.Précisonsque cette estimation part du principe que tous les projets de loi en cours seront promulgués dans leur version actuelle, ce qui implique aussi la fin des réductions d'impôts fédérales adoptées en 2017. Dans le cas contraire, il faut donc s'attendre à ce que les chiffres soient supérieurs. Le niveau de la dette totale des États- Unis, qui a franchi la barre des 33.000 milliards USD le 30 juin 2023, a failli entraîner un «shutdown» en octobre, c'est-à-direlasuspensiondesservicesfédé- raux. D'ailleurs, le Congrès devant encore se mettre d'accord sur les priorités budgétaires, ce risque demeure, et pourrait se matérialiser dès novembre. Cela étant, je doute que des difficultés surgissent dès que l'encours de la dette dépassera 100% du PIB. En effet, d'autres pays ont connu des taux d'endet- tement encore supérieurs, sans que cela ne cause de graves pertur- bations.Mais contrairement auxÉtats-Unis, cer- tains d'entre eux bénéficiaient d'une configuration unique, comme par exemple un important vivier d'investisseurs nationaux qui les rendait moins dépendants de l'étranger. Par ailleurs, le dollar US devrait conserver son statut de monnaie de réserve du monde. Dans ces condi- tions, il est difficile de prédire si, et quand, la dette américaine pourrait commencer à poser problème, etmêmede s'inspirer de l'expérienced'autres écono- mies, dont ladéfaillance a étéplutôt imputable àune guerre ou à une catastrophe naturelle. Il convient malgré tout de surveiller l'évolution de la dette américaine, puisqu'à en croire les prévisions, les paiements nets d'intérêts (aujourd'hui de 476mil- liards USD) devraient dépasser les dépenses mili- taires au cours des cinq prochaines années, et atteindre 1.440 milliards USD d'ici dixans.Autrement dit, lespaiements d'intérêtscapteront10,6%derecettesfédé- rales en plus d'ici à 2033. Quelles peuvent être les conséquences d'un surendettement ? Une progression constante de l'endette- ment pourrait obliger le gouvernement fédéral à faire des choix politiques diffi- ciles, avec des retombées potentiellement négatives sur les entreprises et les ménages. En toute logique, les taux d'in- térêt augmenteraient structurellement sous l'effet d'unemultiplicationdes émis- sions de bons du Trésor, et des hausses d'impôtspourraient êtrenécessairespour assurer le service de la dette. Laréorientationpossibledesdépensespubliquesvers le service de la dette pourrait quant à elle freiner la croissance économique, et finir par éroder les rende- ments boursiers, lesquels sont étroitement corrélés, à long terme, avec la croissance du PIB. Rien d'éton- nant, donc, à ce que nos clients continuent de m'in- terroger sur la viabilité de la dette. Cela dit, ils ont désormais tendance à ajouter que «La Réserve fédé- rale ne peut augmenter indéfiniment les taux d'inté- rêt,souspeinederendreladettepubliquetropchère». Rappelons que la Fed, dont le doublemandat est de favoriser le plein emploi et la stabilité des prix, n'a aucuneobligationd'aider legouvernement àassurer leservicedeladette–sauf,peut-être,sielleconsidère le caractère économiquement abordable de la dette comme une menace pour la réalisation de ses deux objectifs.Etmêmedanscecas,ilfaudraitfairepreuve d'une logique détournée pour établir un lien entre les deux éléments. On pourrait aussi imaginer que le Congrès améri- cain juge insatisfaisant le désintérêt de la Fed pour l'équilibre budgétaire du pays, et qu'il décide en conséquence de revoir sonmandat, voire de la pla- cer sous son contrôle. Or, on l'a vu par le passé, la situation économique des pays dont les banques centrales ont perdu leur indépendance a tendance à s'affaiblir. Quoi qu'il en soit, rien ne permet d'affirmer qu'une crise de la dette américaine est imminente ouque la Fedsera contraintede renoncer à son indépendance. Mais au vu de la rapidité avec laquelle la dette publique se creuse, il devient deplus enplusdifficile d'affirmer que ce sujet est insignifiant. Il n'existe pas de solution facile au dilemme d'une dette de 33.000 milliards USD qui croît continuellement, mais la classe politique doit s'y atteler si elle veut éviter de devoir faire face aux répercussions possibles sur les marchés financiers et sur l'économie. Le dilemme de la dette publique américaine CapitalGroup,BureauoftheFiscalService,CongressionalBudgetOffice.Au31décembre2022. Sous chaque présidence depuis 50 ans, la dette américaine s'est creusée DépensesfédéralesramenéeàladettetotaledesEtats-Unis(enmilliardsUSD) By Ivaylo MARKOV, Managing Partner of Thales Capital T he global economy is currently at a turning point. This is hap- pening against the backdrop of the unpredictability of the geopo- litical turmoil, the sudden growth of the debt burden of the countries and the pecuniary reasons for the weak economic growth. This in a nuts- hell is written in an analysis of the authoritative Ger- man business maga- zine Handelsblatt. According to the au- thors of the publication, the world economy is entering a "newmacroeconomic era". And this new period is characterised by "three major risks, the consequences of which cannot now be foreseen", the article in the German edition says. First of all, we are talking about the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, the situation in the U.S. and the growing tensions between China and the U.S. We at Thales Capital, strongly working with Middle East companies, clearly observe a certain mistrust and expectations for possible future sanctions to some of the local actors and countries. In that particular climate, newbusiness or financing is pretty difficult to instigate and the principle wait-and-see is installing itself in that particular atmosphere. The second factor, the publication says, is the significant increase in the debt burden of the countries, a process that started in 2008 and has continued so far. For example, in the euro area countries, total debt has more than doubled in 15 years, from €6.2 tril- lion to €12.9 trillion, which corresponds to almost 100% of the economic output of the countries of the monetary union per year (in 2022, the euro area's GDP totals €12.26 trillion). In the U.S. the national debt for the same period has increased more than three times (to 34 trillion dollars), which exceeds 120% of the country's annual economic output. The third reason for the lack of growth, write the authors of the paper in Handelsblatt, is the weak economic growth in the world as a whole piece. While the U.S. and Europe are already heading towards weak growth or recession, "increasingly worryingeconomic signals are coming fromChina". Furthermore, the authors of the arti- cle believe that international finan- cial markets have fallen into a "state of anxiety" due to "geopoliti- cal risks, giant mountains of debt and pronounced weak economic growth". The CEO of the largest American bank JP Morgan Chase, Jаmіe Dіmоn, ѕаmеlу expressed concern about the development of the global economy. He has commented in mid-october that the current situation in the global financial market could become the most dange- rous since decades. In his view, the situation in Ukraine, as well as Hamas attacks on Israel, could have long-term consequences for energy and food markets, as well as for whole trade process with the world in its globality, and the relevant geopolitical relations. An extremely important element of the situation is or are the currencies, hard or soft, involved in world’s economy as foreign reserves or payment tool. In summary, hard currency as a comparison is a stable and reliable form of currency that is issued by a government and widely accepted around the world. Soft currency is an unstable formof the latter that is unconvertable, fluctuates very erratically, and/or depreciates against other currencies. There are different components showing the "weight" of countries' currencies - their exchange rate against major currencies, the use of a given currency as a means of payment in international payments, whether it is undervalued or overva- lued at present. Another factor, which is relatively subjective, is the reliability of the currency. The most reliable cur- rency in the world today is the Chinese yuan, says Mikhail Belyaev, a financial analyst. The economic analyst explains that the credibility of any currency depends primarily on the general state of the eco- nomy it represents. 'Currency is not a separate independent substance or an economic "substance", but rather a derivative of the state or form the said economy has. Therefore, according toBelyaev, there are currently only three currencies to choose between as far as great reliability is concerned: the yuan, theUS dol- lar and the euro. If we rank them, then preference may be given to the yuan. Because the Chinese currency leans on a stable economy, which is strictly controlled by the government. In addition, China's economy is "taking upmore andmore space in theworld", the economist explains. The second most reliable cur- rency, should be the US dollar. It is too early to "write off" the strength of the American economy, although it now has problems, notes Belyaev. The third most reliable currency is the euro. The eurozone economy is still large, but already with big problems. Sustainable development of Europe does not emerge and is not expected to do it even in the next year or two. It is also too early to talk about a major downturn of the European eco- nomy, the analyst says. It has been recently disclosed that the share of the euro in international payments through the SWIFT interbank system in August amounted to 23.2%. This is 1.2% less than in July and almost 14.66% less than at the beginning of the year, when the part of the European currency was 37.9%, accor- ding to data published by SWIFT. The euro's weight has steadily declined every month since January 2023 and is now at a record low. Its sharpest decline was in June this year, when the euro's portion in international payments collapsed from 31.25% to 24.4%. The US economy is over-indebted – what are the consequences The increase in the US national debt, which has already exceeded 33 trillion dollars, leads to the highest ever costs of servicing it. For 2024, they may reach over 4%of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), which was seen only in the 1980s, Yegor Susin, managing director of the Gazprombank, declared. The U.S. Ministry of Finance reported a few days ago that the country's total foreign debt has rea- ched $33,044 trillion. Thus, the experts note, with the country'sGDP at about $26 trillion, the national debt now exceeds 127% of GDP. Just to remind that according to the EU rules, the external debt of any country should not exceed 30%of its GDP, but countries like Italy and France are well above this value. And currently, Russia's public debt is about 16% of its GDP. "The main problem with the continued increase in US government debt is that, due to rising inte- rest rates, the cost of servicing it is increasing and it is already averaging about 2.9% of the debt itself per year. And this is already equivalent to about 3.6% of US GDP. However, U.S. interest rates continue to rise and by early 2024 debt ser- vice costs will amount to about 4% of GDP. After that, they will very likely exceed the previous peak of 4.2% of GDP recorded in the 1980s, when the US Federal Reserve's key interest rates "broke" the records," Susin predicts. The Fed's increase in key interest rates began in March 2020, from a level of 0.25% and by July 2023 the upper limit of the range had already rea- ched 5.5%. In the words of the financial expert Susin, "the United States should reduce its budget deficit, because in this dynamics with main interest rates, the situation becomes unstable. The basic interest rates are rising and will translate into an increase in the debt burden of the country." Last spring, there were attempts in the US to once again raise the ceiling of the national debt, as the previous one of 31.4 trillion dollars was exceeded at the beginning of the year.At the end, republicans and democrats agreed to suspend the debt ceiling by January 2025 and to start reducing spending. European countries with the highest external debt External debt, relative to the volume of gross domestic product (GDP), is one of the main indi- cators of the economic "health" of any country. Among the world's largest economies, the lowest level of external debt is registered in China (the secondlargesteconomyaftertheUS)-13.7%ofGDP. India's external debt as of the endof 2022 is 19.1%of GDP, basedonofficial data. Inaddition, it shouldbe kept in mind that, according to the European Commission's forecasts, the external debt of anyEU country should not exceed 30%of its GDP. At the same time, among developed economies, the largest external debt burden is observed in the European countries by far. However, for the Netherlands, the burden already reaches 380.5%, of the GDP (i.e. more than 10 times the target). For France, the external debt in 2022 has reached 249% of GDP, and for Belgium - 242%. The top ten countries with the highest external debt bur- den relative to GDP also include Spain (179% of GDP), Sweden (170% of GDP), Germany (159% of GDP), Norway (132% of GDP) and Italy (131% of GDP). As for the war-leading Russia, in the end of 2022 the country's level of foreign debt has fallen by 10%, to 16.6% of GDP, which is an absolute sur- prise from any point of view. The figure became the lowest in the country's history. The Central Bank of Russia explained a little earlier this year that the reduction of the country's external debt was due more to the repayment of external loans and the reduction of the debt on government secu- rities last year, than to a clear economic growth. Is there a newmacroeconomic age and what are its signs?