Agefi Luxembourg - mai 2024

Mai 2024 27 AGEFI Luxembourg Fonds d’investissement Les élections européennes de 2024 et les différents scénarios pour les investisseurs C ette année, nous devons nous rendre aux urnes pour l’Eu- rope. 2024 est une année électo- rale dans de nombreuses régions, à l’issue de laquelle les votes façonne- ront la trajectoire des années à venir. Depuis les élections fédérales et locales en Belgique jusqu’aux élec- tions parlementaires cruciales en Allemagne, en passant par la voix émergentedesjeunesgénérationsen France et en Espagne : le climat poli- tique en Europe est sur le point de changer.Quel sera l’impact des votes à droite ou pro-UE sur les marchés financiers et les investisseurs ? Maxim Manturov (portrait),Headof Investment Research chez Freedom24, fait le point. Unemajorité pro-UE Les premiers sondages et prévisions pour les élec- tions du 9 juin sont déjà connus. La question se pose donc de savoir ce qu’une majorité «pro-UE» impli- querait pour le marché et les investisseurs européens en cas de renforcement signifi- catif de la droite. Prévoir l’impact de ce vote est complexe, car il dépend de plu- sieurs facteurs au-delà de la seule dicho- tomie «pro-UE» et «de droite». Supposons qu’en Europe, la majorité pro- UEs’impose auparlement européen. Il y aurait alors un engagement renou- velé en faveur d’une intégra- tion économique et politique plus étroite. Pour les investis- seurs,celapourraitse traduire par une atti- tude plus favorable envers les actifs euro- péens. La stabilité qui en découlera pourrait attirer les investisseurs en quête de sécurité, ce qui renfor- cerait l’euro en tant que monnaie. Avec une majoritéfavorableàl’UE,lessecteursdirectementliés aumarchéunique, telsque les institutions financières etlesproduitsdegrandeconsommation,verrontleurs valorisations augmenter. En outre, les marchés seraientmoinsvolatilsdufaitd’unconsensusetd’une prévisibilitéaccrusdesdécisionspolitiques.Lespartis pro-UE mettant davantage l’accent sur les technolo- gies vertes et numériques, cela favorisera les investis- sements dans ces secteurs et aura un impact positif sur lesmarchés en croissance. Renforcement de l’aile droite À l’autre extrémité du spectre, nous observons une hausse notable de la droite. L’euroscepticisme et l’in- certitude ont de beaux jours devant eux. Ce scepti- cisme à l’égard de l’UE est de plus en plus répandu dans tous les Étatsmembres de l’Union européenne. Le succès des partis d’(extrême) droite suscite des inquiétudes quant à une éventuelle fragmentation au sein de l’UE. Celle-ci pourrait accentuer la vola- tilité des marchés et effrayer les investisseurs qui ont une aversion pour le risque. Si cela devait conduire les investisseurs à changer leur comporte- ment, l’euro et les actions européennes pourraient s’en trouver affaiblis, en fonction de la force du sen- timent des investisseurs. Les secteurs qui dépendent du commerce internatio- nal et de l’intégration en souffriraient également, notammentceuxquisontfortementtributairesd’une coopération harmonieuse au sein de l’UE. Enfin, les conflitspolitiquesentrelesgouvernementsnationaux et le parlement européen pourraient retarder l’avan- cementdelalégislation,cequimineraitencoredavan- tage la confiance des investisseurs. Cependant, il est important de garder à l’esprit que les termes «pro-UE» et «droite» englobent un large éventail de partis ayant des opinions différentes. L’impact réel dépendra donc de la composition et de la force des factions spécifiques au sein de chaque camp. Les performances dumarché sont influencées non seulement par les élections européennes, mais aussi par des facteurs externes tels que les conditions économiques mondiales et la politique des banques centrales. La diversification avant tout Pour les investisseurs européens, la diversification demeure dès lors une priorité. Quel que soit le résultat des élections, les investisseurs doivent conserver un portefeuille réparti entre divers sec- teurs, régions et classes d’actifs afin d’atténuer les risques. L’impact concret des élections européennes sur le marché et les investisseurs reste à voir. Ce qui est certain, c’est que les investisseurs doivent suivre de près l’évolution de la situation et fonder leurs décisions sur une analyse approfondie, quelle que soit la directionpolitique que prendra l’Europe à l’issue de ces élections. Le vote pour l’Europe : quel impact boursier ? T he real estate fund indus- try is in the midst of a si- gnificant shift, with artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies revolutio- nizing traditional financial re- porting. Stakeholders are increa- singly demanding transparency, speed, and accuracy, pushing the industry towards inevitable tech- nological adaptation. AI is central to this revolution, offering the ability to quickly process and ana- lyze large amounts of data. This leads to real-time insights into market trends, property valuations, and in- vestment risks, whichwere previously difficult to obtain. Such insights greatly enhance fund managers’ decision- making and the relevance and reliabil- ity of financial reports. As the industry navigates this digital transformation, collaboration among stakeholders is essential to address the accompanying challenges and to make the most of these technological ad- vancements.While the journey involves hurdles, the potential for significant im- provements in financial reporting pres- ents an exciting opportunity for the real estate fund sector. Consequently, an increasing number of companies are considering the adoption of managed services that provide spe- cialized knowledge and technological solutions, bypassing the need for inter- nal development and its associated costs. What follows is an insight into some of the most commonly explored areas for AI adoption, cropping up amongst real estate investment firms in Luxembourg. Analytical insights Emerging technologies, like AI and machine learning algorithms offer deep analytical capabilities, providing real estate fundmanagers with predic- tive insights and trend analyses. This foresight allows for more informed de- cision-making, with a clearer under- standing of market movements and the performance of individual assets within the portfolio. AI’s ability to crunch vast datasets and reveal pat- terns can lead to more strategic invest- ments and divestments, optimizing fund performance over time. Asset&propertymanagement. By har- nessing AI, managers can significantly enhance operational efficiency, using the technology to fine-tune building op- erations and energy consumption, which translates into tangible cost re- ductions. Predictive maintenance emerges as a standout benefit, withAI’s ability to process sensor data and antic- ipate the need for equipment servicing, thereby curtailing downtime and repair expenses. On the human side, AI’s ana- lytical prowess provides awindow into tenant behaviors and preferences, en- abling managers to tailor services for heightened satisfaction. Furthermore, the integration of AI with virtual and augmented reality tech in- vites prospective tenants or buyers into immersive virtual property tours, offer- ing convenience and a novel experience thattranscendsgeographicalboundaries. Valuation of properties. AI can revolu- tionize property valuation by incorpo- rating vast amounts of data, including historical sales, property features, mar- ket trends, and even social and eco- nomic indicators, to make precise valuations.AutomatedValuationMod- els (AVMs) leverageAI to predict prop- erty values quickly andmore accurately than traditional methods. AI enhances the valuation process by using machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of data, including historical price data, neighborhood trends, current market conditions, and comparable, with higher accuracy and efficiency. This results in more precise valuations, real-time updates reflecting market conditions, and robust analytics for informed investment decisions. Financial statements. AI streamlines fi- nancial statement preparation by au- tomating data entry and reconciliation, minimizing errors, and enabling ad- vanced analytics for precise financial forecasting. Investor & regulatory reporting and compliance AI can significantly streamline investor reporting, and help to address regula- tory and compliance requirements. AI tools can indeed assist in monitoring compliance with regulatory require- ments and in identifying potential risks. This innovation not only builds trust with investors but also satisfies the reg- ulatory demands for transparency and accountability in financial reporting. Regulatory reporting & compliance. Luxembourg being the largest fund center in Europe, is considered to have a favorable regulatory framework for investors. With the country’s versatile regulatory landscape, AI-driven sys- tems can automate monitoring and re- porting requirements, reducing the likelihood of human error and ensuring funds remain compliant with the latest directives. This is crucial for maintain- ing Luxembourg’s position as an attrac- tive location for real estate investment funds. AI can help real estate firms in regulatory compliance by automating report generation, assessing risks through data analysis, and detecting fraud with advanced algorithms. Enhanced investor reporting. AI em- powers fund managers with precise, comprehensive, and customized in- vestor reporting. By analyzing extensive data, AI predicts market trends and property values accurately. Automated analytics platforms produce reports with both historical and predictive in- sights, aiding informed investor deci- sions and building trust. In Luxembourg’s diverse real estate fund market, AI’s data analytics and multi- lingual reporting capabilities are espe- cially beneficial, meeting the complex needs of an international investor base and enhancing the global attractiveness of Luxembourg-based funds. Challenges and integration hurdles Despite the potential benefits, the adop- tion ofAI within the real estate fund in- dustry faces several challenges. Stakeholders must undertake compre- hensive readiness assessments to iden- tify gaps in technology infrastructure, datamanagement capabilities, and staff expertise. The integration of AI solu- tions requires a multi-disciplinary ap- proach, combining knowledge of real estate markets with advanced techno- logical skills. The goal is to complement human ex- pertise withAI’s analytical capabilities, enhancing the fund’s ability to manage costs efficiently, make informed deci- sions, and ultimately improve financial performance. This will necessitate AI and finance transformations experts to build and deploy the right model. Shortage of skilled labor . The shortage of skilled labor inAI and real estate an- alytics poses a significant barrier to the industry’s transformation. Building ca- pacity through education and training programs is essential. Collaborations between the industry and academic in- stitutions can help in developing spe- cialized courses that cater to the evolving needs of the real estate sector. Additionally, fostering a culture of con- tinuous learning and innovationwithin organizations can attract and retain tal- ent in this competitive field. Overdependency and regulatory risk . The regulatory environment, notably in Luxembourg, is rapidly changing with the adoption of the AI Act by the Euro- pean Parliament inMarch 2024, setting a precedent as the first extensive legal framework forAI. Real estate companies must adapt to ensureAI compliance, re- quiringvigilantmonitoringandupdates. Concerns around data privacy and cy- bersecurityareparamount,asAIrelieson substantial data, including personal in- formation, necessitatingcareful consider- ation of data handling and protection against cyber threats. Additionally, the significantcostsassociatedwithAIdevel- opment and maintenance, as well as the risks of over-reliance on AI predictions, must be managed carefully to avoid po- tential pitfalls inmarket analysis. Leveraging through Managed Services Managed Services emerge as a solution to these challenges, offering expertise and technologywithout the overheadof developing in-house capabilities. Providers of such services can help real estate funds navigate AI integration, from selecting the right tools tomanag- ing data and ensuring security. By leveragingmanaged services, funds can stay focused on their core competencies while harnessing the power of AI. The road ahead The future of the real estate fund indus- try is intertwinedwithAI.As technology advances, we can expect even more so- phisticated applications, such as AI-dri- ven investment strategies andblockchain integration for transparent and secure transactions. The industrymust embrace continuous learning and adaptability to thrive in thisAI-driven era. In conclusion, AI is not just a trend but a fundamental shift in how the real es- tate fund industry operates. It promises to enhance every aspect of the business, from operations to client engagement. While challenges exist, the strategic use of managed services can facilitate a smooth transition into this new techno- logical paradigm. The road ahead is paved with AI, and for those willing to adapt, it leads to a future of unparal- leled potential. Léna Le GAL EY Luxembourg Partner, Accounting Compliance & Reporting, Real Estate Mayank NAGAYACH EY Luxembourg Manager, Accounting Compliance & Reporting, Real Estate Ajay BALI EY Luxembourg Technology Consulting Partner, DigitalEmergingTechnologiesandDataSolutionsLeader Modernizing financial and non-financial reporting in the real estate fund industry: the role of AI