Agefi Luxembourg - décembre 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 2 Décembre 2025 Économie SOMMAIRE t Économie L’Europe face aux États-Unis : incertitude française, retour de l’Espagne (Roland GILLET, Professeur d’économie financière, expert international) p. 1 et 5 Simplification of EU digital regulations: The Digital Omnibus (Vincent WELLENS, Ottavio COVOLO, Jill VAN OVERBEKE, NautaDutilh) p. 1 et 7 Luxembourg’s Banking Sector Evolution (Banking 360 Conference, ABBL - Deloitte) p. 2 Incertitudes économiques et géopolitiques (Baromètre de l’Économie du 2 e semestre de la Chambre de Commerce) p. 4 Une reprise sous pression (Note de conjoncture 2-25 du STATEC) p. 4 Des horizons plus clairs (Daniele ANTONUCCI, Quintet) p. 6 Le Luxembourg réaffirme son rôle moteur dans l’assurance européenne (13ᵉ ACA Insurance Day) p. 6 Mon combat pour la liberté (Maria Corina MACHADO, prix Nobel de la paix - InterviewPolitique Internationale à Paris) p. 8 Des risques budgétaires sous-estimés (Avis de la Cour des comptes sur le budget de l’État 2026) p. 8 2026 : on prend les mêmes et on recommence ? (Philippe LEDENT, ING) p. 9 La BCE veut simplifier les règles sur les fonds propres des banques (Reuters) p. 9 Le capitalisme est mort ! Vive le capitalisme ! (François DORLAND, BOARDS) p. 10 PSF in the Era of Digital Transformation (Conference Deloitte) p. 10 AI, the stock market, and the great productivity heist: a call for a new social contract (BrunoCOLMANT,RoyalAcademyofBelgium) p.11 « Construire un véritable marché financier unique » (Commission européenne) p. 11 Journée internationale de l’aviation civile : La nouvelle génération dans l’aviation (AndreiRADULESCU,Macroéconomisteinternational senior) p.12 Les entreprises luxembourgeoises investissent de manière très active mais restent prudentes quant à l’avenir (Enquête BEI sur l’investissement) p. 12 De nouvelles aides pour alléger la facture d’électricité (ministère de l’Économie) p. 12 La guerre des drones (Partie 2) (Jean MARSIA, Société européenne de défense AISBL - S€D) p. 13 « L’UE doit affirmer sa force et son unité » (Gilles Roth aux réunions Eurogroupe et Ecofin, ministère des Finances) p. 13 t Consultance Fraud risks targeting Luxembourg banks: a multi-layered defence strategy (Clara BOURGI, Noémie HALLER, Markos-Marios BIKAS, Edouard DELFOSSE, Arendt) p. 14 Les banques et assurances déploient des agents d’IA pour lutter contre la fraude (Capgemini) p. 14 Cementing Luxembourg’s strategic positioning (Corporate & Institutional Banking Survey - ABBL, PwC) p. 15 Transfer pricing, focus on banks: How to mitigate potential VAT risks in intragroup transactions (Nicolas GILLET,Alexandra COBO, EY) p. 16 “We aim to become the financial services provider oftomorrow”(JohanVANDENBERG,Ancorius) p.16 EU and global tax transparency reforms: Preparing for FASTER, MiKaDiv and DAC8 (Jean KIZITO, KPMG) p. 17 SFDR 2.0: FromESG disclosures to ESG labels (Cédric DANOIS,DaraINGALLO,A&OShearman) p.18 RenéBeltjensremporteleprixEntrepreneurdel’année EY 2025 p. 18 15 e anniversaire de Baker McKenzie Luxembourg (Interviewde Jean-François FINDLING) p. 19 Face à l’incertitude, garder le cap sur les sujets du développement durable (Luxembourg Sustainability Forum, IMS) p. 19 Corporate Social Responsibility and the Evolving Role of Advisors (Camille ROCHE, Arendt &Medernach) p. 20 Finance & Technology Luxembourg dévoile ses ambitions internationales p. 20 Is a software-defined compliance the answer to future compliance challenges? (Nicole SCHADECK, Pierre-Jean ECK, PwC) p. 21 One year after implementation: The impact of the 2024 Global Internal Audit Standards (Tanja HERING, Jasmin WEINGARTEN, Jérôme SOSNOWSKI, Deloitte) p. 21 Quelle stratégie pour l’investissement « patient » en Europe ? (Claire MUNCK, BeAngels) p. 22 2026 will challenge DPOs: how DPO-as-a-service canhelp(FaustineCACHERA,Bénédicted’ALLARD, Delphine GARNIER, Arendt) p. 22 Après la disruption : Le retour du réel (Renaud BARBIER, Osons) p. 23 Qivalis lance un stablecoin euro p. 23 European blocking statutes in the global context (Nessym Jules TIR, Wolff & Partners) p. 24 Réduire les angles morts éthiques en finance durable: fondements et stratégies (Corinne LAWSON) p. 24 Durabilité en 2025 pour les institutions financières : éliminer le bruit, capter le bon signal (RobinMARC, R-Aligned) p. 25 ATOZ certifié ISO/IEC 27001:2022 p. 25 t Fonds d’investissement Private Equity Goes Retail (Shanu SHERWANI, Kneip Management / Antwort Capital) p. 26 The integration imperative:Why infrastructure fund managers need end-to-end solutions (Zeeshan AHMED, Laurent CAPOLAGHI, Osman YILDIRIM, EY) p. 26 La flexibilité, mantra de la gestion obligataire pour 2026 (Henriette LEMINTIER, LBPAM) p. 27 China brings Euro-denominated sovereign bond to LuxSE p. 27 Dette émergente : une nouvelle ère d’opportunités (Sergio TARAZONA, Union Bancaire Privée) p. 28 Sustainable investing in 2026: The continuing path to a more resilient future (Jane AMBACHTSHEER, BNP Paribas AM, Jane WADIA, AXA IM) p. 28 L’économie mondiale achève l’année 2025 sans véritable surprise (Guy WAGNER, BLI) p. 29 Private equity vehicles in Luxembourg: The rise of fund of funds (Muhammad Salman FAROOQUI, Lars STEIN, EY) p. 29 Ce qui devrait compter en 2026 (Marcelo PRETO, Mandarine Gestion) p. 30 Actions technologiques : pas de panique (Christopher DEMBIK, Pictet AM) p. 30 Résultats trimestriels : un phare dans le brouillard (Pierre PINCEMAILLE, DNCA Investments) p. 30 Streamlining withholding tax relief: Impacts on asset servicing and the revolutionary role of FASTER in cross-borderinvestment(PatriceFRITSCH,EY) p.31 Le manque de visibilité appelle les investisseurs à la vigilance en 2026 (Allianz Global Investors) p. 31 From National to Pan-European: The Emerging Single Market for ELTIFs (Sebastiaan Niels HOOGHIEMSTRA, Loyens & Loeff) p. 32 Naviguerdansunmondefragmenté(Candriam) p.33 Finance durable : comment l’Europe répond au défi de la disponibilité des données ? (Leïla KAMARA, KamaraAdvisory) p. 33 2026, the return of opportunities in bond markets (Amaury D’ORSAY, Amundi) p. 34 MakingCircularityInvestable:Frompolicyaspiration to financial opportunity (LuxFLAG) p. 34 t Droit / Emploi Luxembourg’s Inpatriate Regime:AnAttractive Talent Tool,PitfallsandtheNeedforClarity(LéoGIBERGUES, AndreaADDAMIANO,Baker&McKenzie) p.35 « La pauvreté ne peut être acceptée dans un pays comme le Luxembourg » (ministère duTravail) p. 35 RemiseduPrixde l’Environnement de laFEDIL p. 36 Traitement TVAd’un ajustement de prix de transfert (Cédric TUSSIOT, Tomas PAPOUSEK, Michel LAMBION, Deloitte) p. 36 Efficacité des conseils d’administration (Daniel CAPOCCI, PhD) p. 37 TVA : nouvelle circulaire luxembourgeoise relative aux voitures de société (Cédric TUSSIOT, Michel LAMBION, Deloitte) p. 37 “In a way, they’re translators”: The evolving role of Corporate Governance Officers (Jeremie HOUET, CorpEdge) p. 38 External Assessment and Valuation of Litigation (Alain GREC, Profile Investment) p. 38 A changing talent market in Luxembourg (Courtney CHARLTON, Greenfield) p. 39 Travailleursdeplateforme:Travailleursindépendants - Décision duTribunal du travail luxembourgeois (ArianeCLAVERIE,AnaïsPHILIPP,Castegnaro) p.39 Court of Justice of the EuropeanUnion –Arcomet case (Emilien LEBAS, Quentin WARSCOTTE, Valentine PLATEAU, KPMG) p.40 «Ledialogue social est le fondement de notremodèle luxembourgeois » (ministère des Finances) p. 40 « Passer le flambeau, saisir l’opportunité » (Entrepreneurs’ Days, Chambre deCommerce) p. 41 Bhutan’s “Enlightened Leadership”: lessons on prosperityandgovernance(WilliamL.SIMPSON) p.41 Recruter undirigeant ne sert à rien si la gouvernance n’est pas prête (Caroline LAMBOLEY) p. 42 t Informatique financière Safeguarding Generative AI and Large Language Models: Lessons learned from the field (MauriceSCHUBERT,YasserABOUKIR,Deloitte) p.43 The next great transformation: HowAI is redefining theway businesses work (Reply) p. 43 Réinventer l’ADN des entreprises européennes (Simon PARIS, Unit4) p. 44 EU FinTech Horizons Summit: Stablecoins at the core of Europe’s Digital Finance Agenda (ABBL and A&O Shearman) p. 44 Attaques par l’IA et menaces NFC en augmentation (Rapport ESET) p. 45 L’IA va-t-elle répéter le paradoxe de Solow ? Ce que Luxembourg doit anticiper (Sitraka FORLER, Systems Architect AI Ops, Post Luxembourg) p. 45 Armundia Luxembourg launches FundWatch p. 46 TVA et digitalisation (8) : de la théorie aux premiers pas concrets (Cédric TUSSIOT, Michel LAMBION, Orhan BERBEROGLU, Deloitte) p. 46 ANewStress Test for Luxembourg’s Banking Sector: Resilience in the Digital Age (HerwigTEMMERMAN, Chris-AnthonyLAFAGES VITALIS, Cédric LALIN, BearingPoint) p. 47 Building Bridges: Luxembourg’s Path to Leadership in Tokenisation andDigitalAssets (ABBL) p. 47 t Leadership, Influence p.42 A t the recent Banking 360 event, heldon 9December andhostedbyDeloitte Luxembourg inpartnershipwith theABBL, the banking sector took centre stage as industry leaders and professionals gathered todiscuss the findings of the newly released “2025BankingSpotlight” report and todebate the future of finance inLuxembourg. The event,marked by optimismand realismin equal measure, underscoredboth the sec- tor’s robust performance and the strategic transformationunderway. Accordingtothe“2025BankingSpotlight” report, which draws on Deloitte’s Bankview benchmarking tool and an in- dependent analysis of 67 Luxembourg- based banks, the sector continues to demonstrate resilience and growth. In 2025, profit before provisions and taxes reached €9.8 billion, while net revenue grewatacompoundannualrateof12per- cent from 2020 to 2024. Return on equity stood at 11 percent, outpacing the EUav- erage. Total assets climbed to €937.5 bil- lion, and commission income rose by 9.4 percent. Despite a stable workforce of 26,000employees,themarketremainsdy- namic, with 16 new entrants since 2020, several mergers, and ongoing restructur- ing. The number of credit institutions has decreased slightly, but the competitive landscape is as vibrant as ever. Throughout the event, speakers high- lighted the sector’s diversity as a unique strength. Luxembourg’s banks span pri- vate, corporate, depository, anduniversal models, and the country’s international orientation—withmany foreign head of- fices and a multicultural workforce—po- sitions it as a bridge between local and global markets. This diversity enables agility and resilience, even as it brings ex- posure to international risks and the need for constant adaptation. The discussions also focused on the chal- lenges ahead. Regulatory complexity and theso-called“warfortalent”werecitedas pressing concerns. With 82 percent of the workforce being non-Luxembourgish, attractingandretainingskilledprofession- als—especiallyindigital,risk,andsustain- able finance—has become a critical prior- ity. Technological disruption is reshaping the industry, as fintechs, neobanks, and innovationsliketokenizationandartificial intelligence gain ground. Speakers called for smarter, principle-based regulation to enhance agility and competitiveness, and for continued investment in talent and innovation. Despite these challenges, the atmosphere at the Banking 360 eventwas decidedly forward-looking. The sector’s stability,regulatorystandards,andexper- tise remain key attractions for clients and investors. Speakers urged banks to focus oncorebusiness,divestnon-coreactivities, democratize access to investment prod- ucts, and leverage EU passporting for cross-borderservices.Operationalefficien- cy, digital and AI innovation, and work- force transformation were identified as strategic imperatives for the years ahead. During the fireside chat, Maryam Khabirpour, Partner at Deloitte Luxem- bourg, and Sandrine Roux, General SecretaryatABBL,emphasizedtheimpor- tance of collaboration—both within the industry and with regulators—as well as theneedtoembracediversityinskillsand backgrounds to future-proof the sector. As the event drewtoa close, the collective message was clear: Luxembourg’s bank- ing sector is not onlyprepared toweather the storms of a rapidly changingfinancial landscape, but is also poised to lead with confidence,agility,andasharedvisionfor excellence. The “2025 Banking Spotlight” reportandthediscussionsitinspiredserve asbothatestamenttothesector’sachieve- ments and a roadmap for its future. Banking 360 Conference Luxembourg’s Banking Sector Evolution ©Deloitte