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By Jean-Pierre Contzen, Académie Royale de Belgique, Academia das Ciências de Lisboa
Many countries in the developing world rely on fossil fuels for their economic (and hopefully social) evolution. Will these countries continue benefiting from these resources for decades? Is the motto “Fossil fuels forever” applicable? In 1956, Marion King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geoscientist, presented a talk about depletion of reserves leading to a bell-shaped production curve for oil, forecasting the production peak around the beginning of the 21st century.
The so-called Hubbert’s peak has not yet been experienced and looks still quite further away. The same methodology applied to gas and coal yields similar results, i.e. no foreseeable peaking due to depletion. Do...
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