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By Keith WADE, Chief economist Schroders
Although a rapid V-shaped recovery is our central forecast, if Covid-19 lingers there is a risk of a "double-dip" recession.
The world economy is in the midst of a sudden stop where activity has been brought to a halt by official action to suppress the coronavirus. We have updated our forecasts and see a severe recession in global GDP this year with the downturn concentrated in the second quarter. On our forecast the contraction in global activity in 2020 of 3% will exceed that seen in the first year of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when global GDP contracted by 0.5%. However, unlike the GFC we do see a relatively rapid bounce back. After the downturn in 2008 it took just over three years for the...
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