AGEFI Luxembourg - juin 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 32 Juin 2025 Fonds d’investissement By Michaël LOK, Group CIO & Co-CEO Asset Management, UnionBancaire Privée (UBP) A s the turbulence stirredupby DonaldTrumpbegins to settle, themarkets are turning their at- tentionback to economic fundamentals. This return to amore academic rea- ding of themarket’s dynamics has seen the re-emergence of a key signal: the riskpre- miumonUS equities is fal- ling, whilst being set against an environmentmarkedby high long-termrates and an earnings growth that is run- ning out of steam. This tighte- ning of the riskpremiumis weakening the sustainability of themar- ket rally in theUS. Riskpremiumunder pressure Since the end of the pandemic, the implicit risk pre- mium on the S&P 500 has steadily compressed. In otherwords, investors arewilling topayeverhigher prices for American corporate earnings growth, drawn by its high profitability and visibility, espe- cially in the technology sector. This trend is largely being carried along by the outperfor- mances of big-cap firms – the ‘Magnifi- cent 7’ –,whoaredeemed tobe relatively insulated from economic downturns. Theirheavyweightingsintheindexgives an illusion of global solidity, even though their valuations remain very challenging. This market confidence – which has looked unshakeable until now – is being maintained despite a tense geopolitical environment, increas- ing uncertainties surrounding the US’s ability to sustain its debt, and persistent inflation. None of these factors have really dampened investors’ appetite for US equities. Yet, a closer look re- veals an underlying weakness: the historically low risk premium, com- bined with high long-term rates is increasingly weighingonperformance outlooks, and thus on the continuation of the S&P 500’s rally. Valuations disconnected fromearnings outlooks Having said that, valuations continue to rise. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has now gone above 21.5 times earnings,which iswell above its historical average. Such levels could be justified in a sustained growth scenario and if interest rates were close to zero, but this is no longer the case. Earnings outlooks, for their part, are lookinggloomy. Whilst growth for 2024 had been set to come in at +14%atthestartoftheyear,expectationsfor2025have been revised down to +9%. This slowdown reflects both a slackeningoffof theUS economy and the first repercussionsofmoreprotectionisteconomicpolicies, markedby a returnof imported inflation. Inlightofthis,equities’realexpectedreturns,asmea- suredbytheprofit-to-valuationratioadjustedforlong rates,arebecomingincreasinglyunattractive.WithUS 10-yearyieldscominginataround4.5%atthestartof June and a historically low risk premium, the spread betweenequites’returnsandthoseofbondshastight- ened, mechanically reducing the incentive to favour the riskpremium. Amarket looking for a catalyst The combination of a shrinking risk premium and falling earnings suggests limited upside for equities, despite sustained investor confidence. This reveals a double weakness: on the one hand, a market that is now being carried alongmore by sentiment than by fundamentals; and, on the other, a riskpremiumthat is too weak to cushion even the slightest upset. In orderfortheupwardtrendtocontinue,oneofthetwo componentpartsoftheriskpremiumwillhavetoim- prove: either a rapid uptick in company earnings, or a significant relaxation of bond yields. If not, any upset,especiallywhenearningsresultsarepublished, couldupset the balance and trigger a correction. For now, themarkets seemtobe especially sensitive to surprises, whether macro- or microeconomic. This environment calls for greater caution in asset management, with diversified allocations focused on asset classes that can both generate profits and absorb shocks. A riskpremiumunder pressure calls for diversified allocations In an environment in which valuations are already strainedandwherelong-termratesarehigh,investors are encouraged to look into alternative segments that are more balanced in terms of risk/return. Amongst these options, carefully selected high-yield bonds, such as senior loans, hybrid bonds issued by solid firms, andAT1s (which have a low sensitivity to du- ration), constitute windows of opportunity that shouldnot be overlooked. Beinglessexposedtomovementsonlongrates,these instruments offer a riskpremiumthat ismore in step with the currentmarket reality, which is onemarked by low visibility on monetary policy developments. They therefore look like credible alternatives to rein- force portfolios’ resilience anddiversification. US equities: risk premium is being eroded; any potential upside is diminishing By Bruno COLMANT, Ph.D., CFA, Member of the RoyalAcademy of Belgium S tablecoins, a type of cryptocur- rency, have emerged as a solu- tion to the inherent volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. The first stablecoin, Tether (USDT), was introduced in 2014 to maintain a stable value bypeg- ging it to theUSdollar at a 1:1 ratio. This pegging is typically achieved through collateraliza- tion, where a reserve of fiat cur- rency or other assets backs each stablecoin. Tether initially claimed tobe fullybackedbyUSdol- lars, but later disclosures revealed amix of assets, including commercial paper andother investments, raising concerns about trans- parency and stability. Theoperationofstablecoinsreliesonamechanismto maintain their peg. For example, USDC (USDCoin), launchedbyCircle in2018, is anotherprimarystable- coin that claims to be fully backedbyUSdollars held in reserve. These reserves are regularly audited to ensure transparency and trust. Users can acquire sta- blecoins by depositing fiat currency with the issuer, who then mints the equivalent amount of stablecoins. Conversely, stablecoins can be redeemed for fiat currency, theoreticallymain- taining the peg. However, the actual reserves and the ability to redeem large amounts during market stress have beenpoints of contention. Theevolutionofstablecoinshasseenthem expand beyond simple fiat-backed models. Some stablecoins are now backed by a basket of assets, including cryptocur- rencies, to diversify risk. Algorithmic stablecoins, such as TerraUSD (UST), attempted to maintain their peg through complex algo- rithms and collateralizationwith other cryptocurrencies;however,theircollapsein2022high- lighted the risks involved. Despite these challenges, stablecoins have gained significant traction. These digital tokens, backed by US Treasury bonds, are creating the beginnings of a parallel currency. Unliketraditionaldollars,whichyieldnothingunless invested,stablecoinsgeneratereturnsfortheirissuers through the interest from the bonds, without direct benefits for the holders. By increasing demand for Treasurybonds,theyindirectlyfinancetheUSpublic debt. Initially, theUnited States seemed to be leaning towardacentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC),which wouldallowcitizens tohavedirect accountswith the Federal Reserve, thereby centralizing money under state control. However, the Trump administration appears(butthiswillneedtobeverified) tohavepro- moted private stablecoins, favoring global dollariza- tion and debt refinancing through the purchase of Treasury bonds by their issuers. But the rapid rise of these stablecoins, illustrated by Circle’svaluationafteritsIPO,raisessignificantques- tions: How would authorities regulate this private money issuance? Could the Federal Reserve see its prerogatives partially privatized? Are stablecoins an indirect way to monetize debt, avoiding traditional money creation? What would be the impact on the traditional dollar if their use exploded? Would their 1:1 parity with the dollar hold if riskier assets, like stocks, replaced Treasury bonds? Stablecoins influ- encetraditionalmarketsbypurchasingshort-termUS debt securities in large quantities, creating risks of volatility ifmassivewithdrawals occur. Their opacity and rapid growth complicate monetary policy and pose a threat to global financial stability. These issues relate to the concept of legal tender, as defined by the German economist Georg Friedrich Knapp in his 1905 book, The State Theory of Money. He argued that money does not need intrinsic value if the state imposes it. Stablecoins, though private, could gain legal recognition throughmass adoption, supportedbypartnerships with companies like Visa or Coinbase, creating a new monetary paradigm. An incidental question arises about the effect of these stablecoins on infla- tion since they represent a new formof money cre- ation, similar to what central banks do when they purchase government bonds. This effect is neither direct nor specific. If stablecoins remain marginal or speculative, their influence will be minimal. However,mass adoption as amediumof exchange could increase the velocity of money and, under certain conditions, stimulate inflation. Yet, their sta- bility, tied to their peg to Treasury bonds, could also curb inflation in unstable economic contexts. It all depends on their use, regulation, and the reac- tions of monetary authorities. In the long term, stablecoins could form a parallel banking circuit, with deposits and loans outside tra- ditional banks, posing regulatory challenges and sta- bility risks if confidence in their reserves falters. Thus, CBDCsnationalizemoneyunderpubliccontrol,while stablecoins privatize it, reflecting a profound trans- formationwherepublicandprivatecurrenciescoexist, redefining trust and sovereignty. However, it’s not just stablecoins: a new monetary ecosystem is emerging, featuring digital currencies, tokenizedTreasurybills,andmore.Onethingissure: we are not ready for this monetary revolution, and our regulatory authorities are even less so. Stablecoins: the next monetary revolution? ParFlorianALLAIN,gérantactionschezMandarine Gestion C ’est évidemment LE sujet de l’an- née 2025 pour les investisseurs en actions : la forte surperfor- mance de l’Europe par rapport aux États- Unis. Lamajorité des investisseurs et des stratégistes n’y croyaient pas en find’année dernière. Mais force est de constater que non seulement la surperfor- mance de l’Europe n’a pas dis- parue, mais que l’écart de per- formance (endollars) est resté significatif et proche de son plus haut niveau annuelmalgré le spectaculaire rebonddes bourses américaines depuis début avril. L’effet FOMO (FearOfMissingOut) réoriente les flux vers le vieux continent Lesinvestisseursvoyantcetécartperdurernes’ytrom- pent pas et commencent à réallouer une partie de leurs capitaux sur les bourses du vieux continent. Dans le domaine de l’investissement financier avoir tort est fâcheux, mais persister dans son erreurestdangereuxpourlasuitedesacar- rière…dèslorsonn’entendpluslescritiques - dont certaines étaient pourtant légitimes - concernant l’investissement enEurope. Au contraire, les atouts du continent sont vantés quasi-unanimement désormais : un politique monétaire plus accommo- dante qui va de pair avec une inflationmaitrisée, des écono- mies périphériques dyna- miques (Espagne, Irlande ou même la Grèce) et l’Allemagne,procheduredé- marrage grâce à un effort budgétaire massif, le tout pour des valorisations raison- nables,surtoutsionlescompare auxmarchés actions américains. Unparadoxe demarché : performances boursières sans croissance bénéficiaire Rien de tout ceci n’est faux et l’investissement en Europe a de nombreuses vertus. Il n’en demeure pas moins un constat relativement décourageant : 2025 devrait être la troisième année consécutive de crois- sance quasi nulle des bénéfices des sociétés euro- péennes. En effet, après la forte hausse des bénéfices des années 2021 et 2022 liée aux effets combinés du rattrapaged’activitépostCOVIDetdelafortepériode d’inflationconcomitante,lessociétéscotéesenEurope ont connuun léger repli bénéficiaireen2023puisune croissance anémique l’année suivante. Pour l’année encours,lesstratégistesdeGoldmanSachsanticipent de nouveauune stagnation. Ce triste palmarès fait de l’Europe, LA grande zone d’investissement sur laquelle laprogressionde béné- fices a été la plus faible en devise locale, même si les lecteurslesplusaviséspourrontrétorquerquelacrois- sancebénéficiairejaponaisetientprincipalementàl’ef- fondrement significatifmais vouluduYen. Sil’ons’intéresseplusparticulièrementàl’année2025, onnotera,laforterévisionàlabaissedesanticipations de croissance bénéficiaire par rapport aux attentes de début d’année. Cette réduction a été de pair avec la révisionparleséconomistesdesperspectivesdecrois- sanceduPIBdanslemondeetnotammentenEurope. Pourlessociétéscotées,enEuropespécifiquement,se sont ajoutées la forte baisse du prix desmatières pre- mières et la forte baisse dudollar. L’incertitude américaine plane toujours L’épée de Damoclès qui pèse sur les investisseurs européens reste évidemment la politique commer- ciale de l’administration américaine. En effet, DonaldTrump a jeté un froid sur lesmarchés euro- péens fin mai en annonçant des droits de douane de 50%sur les produits de la zoneEuro…qu’il s’est empressé de mettre en pause moins de 24 heures plus tard. Il est évident qu’aucunedes prévisions de croissance bénéficiaires que nous avons pu consul- ter ne table sur unniveaude taxation aussi extrême, la plupart utilisant une base à 10% qu’ils modulent un peu en fonction de leurs hypothèses internes. Il est certain que dans une perspective aussi agres- sive, non seulement les bénéfices de 2025mais aussi ceuxde l’année suivantedevraient être sérieusement revus à la baisse. Si l’on remet en perspective les bonnes perfor- mances boursières de ces 30 derniers mois avec la progressionanémiquedes bénéficesdes sociétés qui les composent, le constat est sans appel : 100%de la progressionvient du renchérissement desmultiples de valorisation des bourses européennes. Alors certes lavalorisationdedépart de cesmarchés était faible par rapport aux moyennes historiques, mais çan’est plus le casdésormais et il faudranéces- sairement le carburant de la croissancedes bénéfices pour alimenter le moteur des bourses d’Europe et éviter qu’elles ne calent. Sur le long terme, difficile de remettre encause la forte corrélationentrehausse des bénéfices et hausse des prix des actions. L’arlésienne de la croissance des bénéfices