Agefi Luxembourg - octobre 2026

Octobre 2026 23 AGEFI Luxembourg Marchés &Wealth Your study reveals a19.2percentagepoint per­ formance gap between the bestandworst­ performing private equitymanagers. How do you explain this? The 19.2 percentagepoint spread between upperand lowerquartile returns highlight­ ed in our study reflects structural differ­ ences between managers. Unlike investing in a public market index, investing in private equity means committing capital to specific man­ agers, whose ability to source opportunities, make investment decisions and improve portfolio com­ panies can vary considerably. The strongest managers benefit from advantages such as proprietary deal flow, operational expertise and estab­ lished networks. These can give them access to attractive opportunities and help them create value throughout the holding period. Why are a manager’s track record and reputa­ tion no longer enough to guarantee perfor­ mance? They have never been a guarantee. A strong track record provides useful information, but it cannot replace a thorough assessment of the next fund. Our analysis of buyout funds found that a topquartile fund was followed by another top­ quartile fund in only 34% of cases. That is above the 25% benchmark one would expect from a purely random outcome, but it also means that roughly twothirds did not repeat their topquar­ tile ranking. Reputation can support access to attractive deals, but investors still need to under­ stand what drove previous returns and whether those advantages remain relevant. Past perfor­ mance is a starting point for due diligence, rather than a substitute for it. What criteria do you believe help identify managers capable of sustaining outperfor­ mance over time? Key considerations include the manager’s sourc­ ing capabilities, operational expertise, quality of decisionmaking and the strength of the invest­ ment strategy. We also assess the quality of the team and its longterm alignment with investors. An important question is whether the manager has repeatable advantages, privileged access to opportunities, specialist knowledge or a demon­ strated ability to improve businesses. This matters particularly as value creation increasingly depends on operational improvements and rev­ enue growth, rather than financial leverage alone. At Moonfare, these assessments form part of a structured process encompassing screening, in­ depth due diligence and investment committee approval. Do you expect this dispersion in perfor­ mance to accelerate the concentration of capital among the strongest managers? We believe it reinforces the case for greater selectivity. In a more challenging fundraising environment, investors are increasingly focused on managers with the discipline to turn down opportunities that do not meet their investment criteria. Preliminary evidence suggests that dispersion tends to widen after downturns, as stronger managers are better placed to deploy capital oppor­ tunistically and acquire assets at attractive valuations. However, the bestperforming managers cannot necessarily absorb unlimited amounts of capital. Their strategies have natural capacity limits, and their funds are often oversubscribed. Some of the strongest returns come from smaller or less widely followed managers, the “hidden gems” that sit outside the most crowded fundraises. Finding them requires deep due diligence and access, but for investors able to do that work, dispersion creates opportunity beyond the bestknown names. Is access to the best funds becoming just as important as selecting them? Yes. Identifying a highquality manager is only half the challenge if an investor cannot secure an allocation. The strongest funds are often capacityconstrained and oversubscribed, mak­ ing access a competitive advantage. This is why rigorous analysis and longstanding relationships with managers need to work together. At Moonfare, our approach combines due diligence with those relationships to help investors access opportunities that are out of reach through tra­ ditional channels. How does Moonfare help democratise access to private equity? Moonfare was founded to give more people access to highquality private equity funds were largely inaccessible to individual investors because of very high minimum commitments and limited access to managers. We help eligible private investors and family offices access these opportunities through lower minimum commit­ ments, institutionalquality due diligence and a digital investment experience. Our offering spans primary funds, coinvest­ ments, secondaries, evergreen strategies and direct investments. We now have our own investment products, support investors through­ out the investment lifecycle, with tools for port­ folio construction, reporting, monitoring and liq­ uidity planning, alongside investor education. In July 2026, we announced that Moonfare had exceeded €4 billion in assets under management and served more than 5,700 investors across 24 countries. In our February interview, you highlighted the growing importance of secondaries as a source of liquidity. How should investors assess the quality of a secondary opportunity beyond the discount to its reported net asset value? Adiscount is only attractive if what you are buy­ ing is worth close to its reported value. You are buying exposure to specific managers and spe­ cific companies, carried at a NAV that one spe­ cific GP decided on. So the question is not ‘how big is the discount’ but ‘what is this NAV actual­ ly made of. The industry has two schools of thought. The traditional playbook is GPcentric: it anchors on the manager’s brand and track record and trusts diversification to average out the weaker companies. Newer, more concentrated players argue that business quality in the underlying companies is what matters, because highquality businesses are saleable in any market and deliver the upside at exit. Nearly every participant in this market agrees on one point: in secondaries, information access is the real edge. For us, the bridge between the two schools is the manager’s valuation policy. Our data shows bot­ tomquartile buyout funds were followed by another bottomquartile fund in around 36% of cases. Weakness persists, and so does a GP’s approach to marking. Some managers are con­ sistently conservative, some consistently gener­ ous, and many 2019 to 2021 vintage portfolios are still carried at multiples that reflect the price paid rather than the business underneath. A20% discount to an aggressively marked NAV can be worse than par on a conservative one. This is whywe have deliberately built Moonfare’s secondaries and primary activities within the same investment team. Because we underwrite managers for fund commitments, we understand their valuation policies and see their portfolios and marks quarter after quarter. One of our core analyses is the uplift at exit versus the reported value one, two and sometimes four quarters before the sale.. That litmus test lets us be far more precise than a buyer looking at the same data roomwithout the history. Your study highlights the difficulty of accessing the strongest managers. How can Luxem­ bourg’s private banking and wealth manage­ ment ecosystemhelp address this challenge for private investors? The strongest managers are often oversub­ scribed and capacityconstrained, so identifying them is only valuable if an investor can actually secure an allocation. Private banks and wealth managers are well placed to help. They under­ stand their clients’objectives, liquidity needs and wider portfolios, and they hold the relationship of trust that any allocation decision rests on. Few other parties can say the same. What they often lack is the specialist machinery private equity demands. That means longstand­ ing relationships with managers who rarely need new capital, the due diligence capacity to assess strategies that resist easy comparison, and an efficient way to pool smaller commitments into institutionalquality funds. Building that in­ house is expensive and slow, and few wealth managers have the scale to justify it. Private equity rewards depth. In an asset class where the gap between the best and worst managers is wide, access to the right ones is not a detail. It is the outcome. The most effective model combines the adviser who knows the client with a specialist who knows the asset class, each doing what the other cannot. What are family offices looking for in private markets, and how does Moonfare support them? Family offices have become an increasingly important source of capital for private markets. They are seeking diversification, greater control over portfolio construction and access to oppor­ tunities that remain difficult to reach through traditional investment channels. They also require institutionalquality due diligence, visi­ bility into investment opportunities and tools to manage cash flows, liquidity and portfolio con­ centration. This is why we developed Moonfare Private Office. It provides a dedicated service combining selected fund opportunities, co­ investments and direct deals with cashflow forecasting and portfolio reviews. The objective is to help family offices build and manage their private markets exposure over the long term. Looking ahead to 2030, which structural changes do you expect to have the greatest impact on how private equity managers create value, and how is Moonfare preparing for them? Two things stand out. The first is technology, particularlyAI. The largest managers are build­ ing private capital ecosystems, with dominant positions in deal flow and talent and they may well be first movers in applying new technolo­ gies across their portfolios. That could widen the gap between managers who adopt these tools effectively and those who don’t. The second is the continued shift towards oper­ ational value creation. As financial engineering alone becomes a less reliable source of returns, a manager’s ability to genuinely improve busi­ nesses will matter even more. Interview with Steffen PAULS, founder and coCEO of Moonfare Private Equity Demands Expertise and Selectivity L uxembourg’s rise as Europe’s hub for private market funds shows no sign of slowing. De­ mand for depositary services tailored to midsized vehicles continues to grow. Addressing this gap, Union Bancaire Privée (Europe) S.A. has launched a new depositary business line in Luxembourg, offering the hightouch ser­ vice of a private bank. A Private Bank’s DNA Meets AIFMDOversight At the core of the new service is the Bank’s identity as a strongly capitalised, family­ owned institutionwitha longtermview. Inamar­ ket where managers often face scaled, standard­ ised processes, Union Bancaire Privée (Europe) S.A. says its size is an advantage. Decisionmaking is fast, and experienced staff handle depositary oversight — from cash monitoring to asset verifi­ cation—with a pragmatic approach. “We’re built for continuity and partnership,” says Patrick Casters (portrait), CEO. “Our clients want consistency through cycles, direct access to decisionmakers, and a team that understands the realities of private capital operations. That’s exactly what a private bank like us can deliver.” Why Now? With AIFMD II implementation and investors pressing for more consistent reporting, many managers are reassessing their operatingpartners. The Bank argues that a depositary grounded in private banking values—discretion, service qual­ ity and stewardship—can provide a differ­ entiated experience, particularly for spon­ sors who don’t fit a standardmodel. “Luxembourg is extraordinarily well served at the institutional endof themarket,”notes DavidBaert (portrait).“Butmidsized funds and firsttime managers often need something different: handson guidance, fast responses and proportional controls. Our scale and governance allow us to offer precisely that.” Who Could Benefit? The depositary solutions are pro­ posed to wealth management clients, family offices, emergingmanagers andmidsized General Partners seeking a partner for bespoke strategies. The Bank emphasises predictable time­ lines and transparent fees, two pain points fre­ quently cited by midmarket sponsors. According to the Bank, engagements begin with a discovery and scoping phase covering struc­ ture, roles and timelines, followed by a readiness checklist clarifying document requirements and control points. Standardised clauses and tested procedures aim to accelerate legal and opera­ tional setup, with a named relationship lead and quarterly service reviews once the fund is live. A Partnership Approach The proposition extends beyond compliance. By “speaking the language” of private markets and coordinating closely withAIFMs, administrators and counsel, the Bank aims to reduce the opera­ tional overhead that can slowmidmarket funds. Senior oversight is a deliberate feature, not an exception. “Our promise is simple,” says David Baert. “We safeguard assets and provide independent over­ sight in investors’ interests.” Union Bancaire Privée (Europe) launches depositary services for wealth management clients and mid-market managers ©Shutterstock