Agefi Luxembourg - octobre 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 22 Octobre 2025 Fonds d’investissement BySergioVENTI,PartnerinAdvisory&Consulting for the Asset Management & Banking sectors at Deloitte Luxembourg A s digital transformation acce- lerates across the financial sec- tor, Luxembourg’s investment fund managers (IFMs) face mounting pressure to evolve. While aware- ness of new technologies is growing, many firms have yet to fully capitalize on the opportunities that di- gital tools offer to stream- line operations, reduce risk, scale effectively, and enhance performance. The next wave of digital evolution for IFMs is being shaped by five key dimensions: infras- tructure, data, integration, business applications, and userexperience.Theseinterconnectedlayersformthe foundation of a transformation journey that is no longer optional but essential. Our research shows that the sector remains heavily dependent on legacy systems andmanual processes. Yet, there are clear signs of progress. More firms are actively modernizing their opera- tions: cloud-native infrastructure is gaining ground, AI and automation are moving be- yond the pilot phase, platform integration is beginning to replace fragmentation, and user-centric interfaces are improving both in- ternalworkflows and client engagement. What’s driving this shift is a growing recog- nition that digital maturity is not just a technical enhancement. It is a strategic enabler in a fast-changing regulatory andmarketenvironment,onethatde- mands resilience, cost efficiency, and stronger client focus. At the heart of this transformation is asecure,scalable,andcomplianthost- ing infrastructure. For IFMs operating in Luxembourg’s highly regulated environ- ment, cloud-enabledplatformsprovide theflexibility and resilience needed tomanage sensitive funddata. Security remains paramount, with end-to-end safe- guards that adhere to CSSF and EU regulatory stan- dardswhilemaintaining stakeholder trust. Equally foundational is the data layer. Properly, structuring and governing operational and regula- torydata is essential toeffectiveoversight, riskmon- itoring, reporting, and strategic decision-making. Robust datamanagement capabilities underpinnot only compliance but also operational excellence. Integration is equallycritical, connecting thebroader fund ecosystem. API-driven architectures enable seamlessdataflows across fundadministrators, cus- todians, andserviceproviders, allowing IFMs toen- hance efficiency, achieve real-time oversight, and strengthen collaboration. Modern business applications support core func- tions such as compliancemonitoring, riskmanage- ment, and fund accounting. Automation in these areas is helping reducemanual effort, improve scal- ability, andreinforce regulatoryalignment. The evo- lution fromfragmented tools to integratedsolutions marks a key step forward in operational maturity. The final layer—user experience—is too often un- derestimated. Yet, it is vital for productivity, collab- oration, and risk reduction. By designing intuitive, role-specific interfaces, IFMs can improve accuracy andengagement across both internal teams andex- ternal partners. The digital maturity journey is not without chal- lenges. Legacy processes, fragmented systems, and evolving regulatory requirements can slow down transformation. Moreover, successfully adopting new technology requires a broader shift inmindset and operations: comprehensive change manage- ment, updatedworkingmethods, andongoingup- skilling of staff are all essential. IFMsmust cultivate a culture of agility and innova- tion. This involves not only investing in technology but also empowering teams to adapt and grow alongside it. Training and talent development will bekey to sustainingdigital progress andaddressing the future needs of the asset management sector. Over the long term, digital transformation is essen- tial tfor managing growing cost pressures and op- erational complexity. By embracing the full spectrum of digital tools—from cloud toAI—Lux- embourg IFMs can future-proof their operations, meet rising client expectations, andmaintaina com- petitive edge in a rapidly evolving landscape. For those seeking deeper insights, our full white paper provides a detailed digital maturity map across each of the five pillars, along with practical use cases fromacross the industry. It offers a frame- work to help individual IFMs—and the industry as a whole—benchmark their progress and define their next steps. Mapping digital maturity: The five dimensions shaping the future of Luxembourg’s IFMs By Mohammed KAZMI, Chief Strategist & Senior PortfolioManager, UnionBancaire Privée (UBP) W ith the trade deficit under scru- tiny during the latest Trump ad- ministration, parallels canbe drawnwith the PlazaAccord of 1985; ho- wever, starkdifferences emerge about how the deficit is being addressed. In 1985, theG5 na- tions coordinated efforts to weaken theUSdollar, aiming to reduce the trade imbalance through international collabo- ration. Forty years later, while the trade deficit has once again taken centre stage, the approachhas shifted fromcooperation to confrontation. The Trump administration’s imposition of broad global tariffs – the so-called ‘Libera- tionDay’ – couldbe seen as a ‘Solo Plaza’ moment, reflecting unilateral action rather thanmultilateral consensus. While the initial narrative surrounding this ‘America First’ approach suggests a potential decline inUS ex- ceptionalismfromagrowthandinvestmentperspec- tive, we argue that the competitive advantages of the USeconomyremainfirmlyintact.Forinstance,theUS continues to lead the world in productivity growth, driven by its thriving and unparalleled technology sector, which positions the economy for sustained higher growth rates compared with regions like the eurozone. Moreover, the US economy re- mains remarkably dynamic and resilient, even amid policy uncertainty under the Trump administration. This is evidenced by record numbers of corporate business applicationsoverthepastyear,highlighting the enduring entrepreneurial spirit and adaptability of theUS business landscape. These factors underscore the structural strengths of the economy, which continue to support its long-term growth potential despite short- term policy disruptions. The most recent earnings season has also demonstrated this point, with the average earnings surprises for S&P 500companiesbeingwellabovehis- torical averages. A key distinction also lies in the fact that Trump is grappling with twin deficits of both trade and the budget, forwhichheviews tariffs as a tool toaddress bothchallengessimultaneously.Interestingly,despite concerns around fiscal dynamics, as reflected in the volatility at the long endof the rate curve, the budget deficit has actually improved by almost 1% of GDP since the start of the year. While this improvement may not represent a definitive turningpoint – partic- ularly as the full effects of the tax bill have yet toma- terialise – it is noteworthy, especially in light of the administration’screativeapproachtoachievingitsob- jectives as observedwith the recent deal withNvidia to tax export revenues fromChina. Oneoftheinitialconcernssurroundingthisconfronta- tional tariff environment was the potential for a sig- nificant rise in inflation, which couldhinder the Fed- eralReserve’sabilitytoresumeitseasingcycle.Whilst there was an initial uptick in core goods inflation at theendofQ2,thespilloverintocoreservicesinflation – amore persistent and critical component of overall inflation–hasremainedlimited.Notably,‘supercore’ inflation, definedby the Fedas core services inflation excludinghousing,hasbeenonadecliningtrendand currently stands at 1.9% on a six-month annualised basis,marking its lowest level since 2020. ThisunderlyinginflationbackdropisenablingtheFed toshiftitsfocustowardstheemploymentaspectofits dualmandate, particularlyaswebegin tosee signsof softening in labourmarket indicators, includingnon- farm payroll data. As economic growth transitions fromaboveitspotentialtobelow,andwithcoreinfla- tionpressuresremainingcontained,thisenvironment shouldprovide the Fedwith the flexibility to resume its easing cycle in themonths ahead in a bid to bring policy towards a more neutral setting and maintain an elevatednominal growthbackdrop. From a portfolio-construction perspective, this has driven us to build more balanced portfolios of both credit risk and interest rate risk, recognising that the lattercanprovideprotectiontotheformerduringmo- ments of stress and volatility. This dynamic has been particularly evident year-to-date, especially towards the front end of rate curves during volatile periods suchas LiberationDay and the recent downward re- visions to payrolls. These developments have also reaffirmed the defensive and safe-haven characteris- tics of theUSTreasurymarket, which remain intact. While the past couple of yearswere definedby infla- tionaryshocks,webelievethattraditionalcorrelations have returned to the fixed-income asset class, sup- ported by the Fed’s growing sensitivity to downside growth risks over upside inflation risks. This shift is a positive for the asset class as a whole, enabling investors to focus on locking in attractive all-in yields, particularly within the higher-income segments of the market. With the framework for major trade deals now agreed upon and the US tax bill approved,wehaveprobablypassedpeakpolicy uncertainty regarding the current administration’s agenda. This shouldprovide awindowof opportu- nity for investors to capitalise on the carry opportu- nity that is presenting itself. This backdrop of high nominal growth is positive for credit, as the default cycle should remain benign and as moments of spread widening should ultimately be capped by easing from the Fed. We have a preference for building portfolios with an allocation to the higher-income segments of credit suchasAT1s,BBbondsandCLOs,whichcontinueto offerattractivepremiumswithouttheneedtotakeon significant default risk. This can be viewed in the po- sitioningofourStrategicIncomeapproach,whichrep- resentsacoreallocationdesignedtoprovidesuperior returns compared with its traditional investment- grade peers, capitalisingon relative value opportuni- ties within credit, whilst maintaining a balanced risk profilewith an average investment-grade rating. The performance of such an allocation has clearly outperformed the investment-grademarket andhas delivered returns closer to the high-yield segment and, as such,weviewthis as a crucial component for fixed incomeportfolios given the current investment environment. Building fixed income portfolios under the Trump presidency Par Louis FLAMAND, Chief Investment Officer, Altaroc A u 2 ème trimestre 2025, lesmarchés des sorties ont continué àmontrer des progrès audeuxième trimestre, bienque le rythme de reprise reste plus lent que ce qu’espéraient de nombreux investisseurs. La valeur globale des sortiesM&Aa atteint 387 milliards de dollars aupremier semestre 2025, une hausse de 53%sur un an. L’activité du deuxième trimestre a été sou- tenue par une augmentation de la participationdes ache- teurs stratégiques, qui a ali- menté un certainnombre de sorties importantes. Comme exemples notables : GTCRa venduWorld- pay à Global Payments pour 24,2 milliards de dol- lars, Permira a vendu Informatica à Sales- force pour 8,0milliards de dollars, Insight Partners a cédéDotmatics àSiemenspour 5,1milliards de dollars, The Jordan Com- pany a cédé Silvus Technologies à Moto- rola pour 4,4milliards de dollars. La haussede la valeur des sorties s’est pro- duite malgré une troisième baisse consécutive du nom- bred’opérations annoncées, qui s’est établi à599, soit une diminutionde 7%d’un tri- mestre sur l’autre. Bien que les sociétés de qualité continuent d’obte- nir des prix attractifs, des taux d’intérêt élevés et l’incertitudeentourantles perspectivesmacroécono- miquescontinuentdelimiterlechampdecequipeut effectivementseréaliserdansl’environnementactuel. Parconséquent,l’inventairedessociétésdétenuespar des fonds de Private Equity (« PE ») poursuit sa hausse,atteignantunniveaurecorddeplusde12500 aux États-Unis, selon PitchBookData, Inc. Lesmarchés d’IPOont également connuun léger re- bondàmesurequeletrimestreprogressait.Alorsque l’émissionétaitfaibleenavrilaumomentdel’annonce de l’augmentationdesdroitsdedouane, ladeuxième moitiédutrimestreavu13sociétéssoutenuespardes fondsdePEs’introduireenbourse,ycomprissixIPOs technologiques capital-risque d’une valorisation su- périeure à 1milliardde dollars. Dans un contexte de ralentissement des sorties tradi- tionnelles, le marché secondaire a poursuivi sa forte progression. Selon lesdonnéesde Jefferies, levolume mondialdumarchésecondaireaatteint103milliards dedollarsaupremiersemestre,enhaussede51%par rapport à la même période en 2024, et le plus grand total semestriel jamais enregistré. L’amélioration des prix a renforcé les opportunités pour les LPs cherchant à rééquilibrer leurs porte- feuilles et à résoudre les problèmes de surallocation via lemarché secondaireLP. Leprixmoyenobservé sur l’ensemble des stratégies demarchés privés a at- teint 90%de la NAV au premier semestre, son plus haut niveaudepuis 2021.Celaaporté lavaleur totale des transactions LP secondaires à environ 56 mil- liardsdedollars aucoursde lapériode, enhaussede 40% sur un an. Les fonds de pensionpublics et d’entreprises ont re- présentéprèsdelamoitiédutotal,incluantplusieurs ventesdeportefeuillesdeplusieursmilliardsdedol- lars annoncées au deuxième trimestre. Le marché GP-led a affiché une croissance encore plus forte, en hausse de 68 % sur un an, soutenu par un montant croissant de capitaux dédiés à cette stratégie. Cet af- flux de capitaux a permis aux GPs de mener des transactions plus grandes et plus complexes. Au deuxième trimestre, cela inclut un véhicule de continuation single asset de 3,1milliards de dollars levé par NewMountainCapital pour son investis- sement dans la société de santé Real Chemistry, et un véhicule multi assets de 2,3 milliards de livres sterling levé par le gérant Buy-Out européen In- flexion. Marché des sorties : des volumes en croissance, tirés par les grandes transactions américaines