Agefi Luxembourg - janvier 2026

AGEFI Luxembourg 20 Janvier 2026 Fonds d’investissement By Nicolas XANTHOPOULOS, Partner & Anthony SOMIAN, Manager at Deloitte Luxembourg S ecurities settlement is a cor- nerstone of capitalmarkets, withover EUR4 trillion in se- curities settleddaily inEUcentral securities depositories (CSDs) (1) . En- suring trades are settled accurately andon time is a constant challenge formarket participants. By October 2027, the EU, EEA, UK, and Switzerland will transition from the cur- rent T+2 settlement cycle to a faster T+1 cycle.Financialinstitutionswillneedtoac- celerate and automate their trading pro- cesses and infrastructure to meet the shortersettlementtimeline.Financialinsti- tutions will need to accelerate and auto- mate their trading processes and infrastructure tomeet the shorter T+1 set- tlementwindow. Trade settlement timeframe: Abrief history The lifecycle of trade settlement has been continuously evolving, adapting to changes in market practices, technology, andregulatoryrequirements. (chartbelow) Under a T+1 cycle, settlement must occur onebusinessdayafterthetradedate.Since 2014, the European settlement cycle has beenharmonizedatT+2undertheCentral SecuritiesDepositoriesRegulation(CSDR). As financial markets and technology evolve,theEU,EEA,UK,andSwitzerland aremovingtoT+1toalignwithotherglob- almarkets and remain competitive. The shift to T+1 will require banks, bro- kers, asset managers, and wealth man- agers to compress the entire post-trade process—including trade matching, con- firmations, custodial instructions, FX, funding, and collateral—into the evening of the tradedate.With less roomforman- ual intervention, firms face tighter cut-off times,higherintradayliquidityandcollat- eral demands, and an increased risk of missed confirmations or late funding, all of which could drive higher settlement failure rates. The US, along with Canada and Mexico, completed their transition to T+1 in May 2024. While the European market differs in many respects, these experiences offer valuablelessonsfortheEU,EEA,UK,and Switzerland. Key regulators and industry associa- tions—including ESMA (2) , the AFMA (3) , the EFAMA (4) and SWIFT (5) —are provid- ing guidance and best practices to help marketparticipantsnavigatethetransition. USmarket versus EU market: Lessons for T+1 TheUShascompleteditstransitiontoT+1, offering a blueprint for Europe. Whilethemarketsareinterconnected,key differences will shape the European im- plementation: - Single currency versus multiple cur- rency: The US T+1 rollout involved only theUSdollar.Europe’stransitionmustac- countfor29currenciesacrosstheEU,EEA, UK, and Switzerland, increasing the vol- ume of cross-currency trades. -Central securitiesdepositories: TheUS operates with a single CSD, while Eu- rope relies on28differentCSDs across its markets. - Regulation and governance: In the US, the SEC is the sole regulator, whereas ESMA must coordinate with 29 national regulators. - Cut-off times: US markets benefit from harmonized cut-off times for key settle- ment tasks, but in Europe, timings vary widely, complicating standardization. -Automation: Thesestructuraldifferences make US trade settlement far more auto- mated than in Europe, which will need significantmodernization to achieve sim- ilar efficiency. Learning fromtheUS: Challenges ahead for Europe’s T+1 AstheT+1transitionapproaches,industry professionals are actively working to en- sure a smooth implementation. Among the key contributors, ESMAhas taken the lead through its EU T+1 Industry Com- mittee, providing guidance and recom- mendations, while SWIFT has shared valuable insights fromtheUS experience. Insights from SWIFT on US T+1 im- plementation In a 2025 report (6) , SWIFT noted that late securities settlements in theUS fell by 7% year-on-year, suggesting the T+1 rollout wasarelativelysuccessful.However,chal- lenges remain, particularly due to un- matched instructions and settlement failures, highlighting the need for contin- uedvigilance andpreparation. SWIFTanticipates similar hurdles for Eu- rope’s T+1 transition. They estimate that preparation costs could rise sharply com- pared with the US—around $36 million versus $13.3 million. The bulk of these costsisexpectedtostemfromautomating the trade settlement process. ESMAleads EUT+1 transitionwithkey recommendations TheEuropeanSecuritiesandMarketsAu- thority (ESMA) has launched a coordi- natedgovernanceinitiativetosupportthe transition to a T+1 settlement cycle across EU, EEA, UK and Swiss securities mar- kets.TheEUT+1IndustryCommitteehas been taskedwith guidingmarket partici- pants through the upcoming changes. In June2025,ESMApublishedaseriesofrec- ommendations,followedbyafinalreport in October 2025 that incorporated feed- back from industry stakeholders. These documentshighlightessentialmeasuresto ensure a smooth transition. Key recommendations: 1. Completing settlement actions onT+0 Tradingvenuesandcentralcounterparties (CCPs) must finalize all actions related to thetransmissionofsettlementinstructions on the same day as the trade (T+0). - Trading venues: Ensure trade capture, enrichment, confirmation, allocation, and affirmationarecompletedasearlyaspos- sible and no later than 23:00 CET on T+0, regardless of local time zones. - Clearing houses/CCPs: Complete net- tingandpre-settlementactivities—includ- ingreconciliation,inventorymanagement, and record creation—to clear trades and sendsettlementinstructionstotheCSDor custodianby 23:59CETonT+0. 2. Real-time processing of settlement instructions - Automation: Settlement instruction workflows should be fully automated, withmanual intervention limited to criti- cal exceptions, to accelerate processing. -Systemtimingupdates: SecuritiesSettle- mentSystems(SSSs)muststartsettlement activitiesnolaterthan00:00onT+1,follow- ing the completion of all T+0 activities by tradingvenues andCCPs. 3. Harmonizingmarket practices - Central Securities Depositories (CSDs) andintermediariesareencouragedtopro- videfunctionalitiesthatreducesettlement failures and improve liquidity: ○ Hold and release: Allows resolution of settlement discrepancies before marking trades as failed. ○ Partialsettlement: Enablespartialdeliv- ery of securities or payments until the full obligation ismet. ○ Auto-borrowingandauto-collateralisa- tion: Supportintradayliquidityprovision. - Other harmonizationmeasures include: ○ Standardized electronic exchange of trade allocations and confirmations. ○ Reducing fund units’ subscription and redemption settlement cycles from T+3/T+4 toT+2. ○ Adoption of the ISO20022 messaging standardwhere applicable. ○ Automatic shaping of settlement in- structions,apracticealreadyimplemented in theUSA, Japan, andCanada. ○ Inclusion of PSET (place of settlement) data at the allocation stage. 4. Harmonizing governance and regu- lation To ensure consistent practices across the EU, EEA, UKandSwitzerland: - Establish an EU/EEA/UK/Switzerland- wide taskforce and working groups on settlement activities. - Coordinate with global counterparts on key interactions. - Address cash management misalign- mentsundertheUCITSdirective,treating potential cash breaches from T+1 as pas- sive and temporarilynon-reportable. - Temporarily suspendCSDRcashpenal- ties followingT+1 implementation. 5. Accelerating FX transactions and corporate events Settlement timing for foreign exchange transactionsandcorporateeventsmustbe acceleratedtoalignwiththenewT+1cycle. ESMA strongly advises breaking down the activities involved in the settlement cycle and implementing changes in phases aheadof the official T+1 rollout, as follows: Outlook for T+1 Implementation ISO20022 The ISO20022 messaging standard can streamlinemessage exchanges across the settlement chain. While some market participants have resisted its adoption due to implementation costs, ESMA has decided itwill not bemandatory for T+1. Nevertheless, early adoption is strongly recommended, as it would harmonize and automate messaging across the en- tire process. T2S All CSDs involved in the T+1 change should connect to T2S as the platform, which requires ISO20022 messaging. Many functionalities recommended by CSDs can also be delivered throughT2S. Automation Amajor focus of T+1 recommendations is straight-through processing. AI agents or agenticAIcouldhelpmeetautomationre- quirements. However, compressing processes that previously took two days intoonewill inevitablyaffect theautoma- tion ratio andmay increase failed or bro- kentrades,particularlyintheearlystages. Harmonization Automationaloneisnotenough—coordi- nation across all settlement chain partici- pants is critical. An automated step is ineffective if preceding or subsequent stages remain manual. Recommended market practices must be adopted collec- tively to ensure a successful T+1 rollout across Europe. Timing Market participants should map which partsoftheiroperationsareimpactedand not rely solely on the official T+1 imple- mentationdateof11October2027.ESMA has suggested informal deadlines to pre- pare in advance: -7December2026: Completionofpre-set- tlement activities. - 1 July 2027: Reporting activities aligned Countdown toT+1: Urgent preparations needed With the 11October 2027 T+1 implemen- tationdateapproaching,allmarketpartic- ipants in the EU, EEA, UK, and Switzerland must act quickly to prepare, ahead of the market test scheduled for early2027.Thescopeofthetransitionisex- tensive, and simply increasing staff to managedisruptionswill not be sufficient. Firms should: - Review ESMA’s recommendations to identify the business activities andwork- streams affected. - Conduct a thorough impact assessment touncover potential gaps. - Define a future target operating model that alignswithT+1 requirements. Earlyandstructuredpreparationisessen- tial to ensure a smooth switch and mini- mize operational risks. 1) Castaldo M. (2025, February 14). T+1 settlement. EuropeanCommission.T+1settlement-European Commission 2)EuropeanSecuritiesandMarketsAuthority 3)AssociationforFinancialMarketsinEurope 4)EuropeanFundandAssetManagementAssoci- ation 5) Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications 6)SWIFTReport–T+1:Oneyearon…Anewchap- terbegins[2025] Countdown to T+1: Rethinking trade settlement operations in European markets Activities ȱ Deadline ȱ Pre Ȭ settlement ȱ activities ȱ 7 ȱ December ȱ 2026 ȱ R eporting ȱ activities ȱ 1 ȱ J uly ȱ 202 7 ȱ T + 1 ȱ Settlement ȱ Official ȱ Implementation ȱ Date ȱ 11 ȱ October ȱ 2027 ȱ Source:DeloitteTax&Consulting,Luxembourg Source:SWIFTReport–T+1:Oneyearon…Anewchapterbegins TypicalSettlementIssuesforSecurities SettlementinNorthAmerica Par Yann GIORDMAÏNA, Responsable du pôleValue, LaFinancière de l’Échiquier (LFDE) L ’approche Value est straté- gique. Il est possible d’iden- tifier des opportunités de décote à n’importe quel moment du cycle et dans tout secteur. L’investissement actions Value est souvent considéré comme étant temporaire, pour profiter d’une fenêtre d’opportunité en raison notamment d’une anticipation de baisse ou de hausse de taux d’intérêt, de relance budgétaire pro ou contracyclique. Contrairement à cette ap- proche, nous considérons que la stratégie Value repose sur une lecture du marché, certainement contrariante, qui a pour objet d’identifier les opportunités de décote : où qu’elles soient et à n’importe quel moment du cycle écono- mique, sans a priori de secteurs d’activités. L’enjeu est d’être en mesure de naviguer au gré des aléas conjoncturels et de s’adapter à tout type de ré- gime demarché. Tenter de déceler des opportunités Value re- quiert les aptitudes les plus fondamentales de la gestion actions. Analyser la trajectoire d’une entreprise, de ses comptes de résultats et de ses métiers, pour confronter savaleur intrinsèqueà d’éventuelles inefficiences de valorisation boursière. Cultiver une psychologie contrariante à l’égard du foisonne- ment d’informations de marché. Savoir reconnaître les signes de disruption qui bouleverseront, ou non, une activité. Un stock-picking pertinent Cette approche estmise enœuvre dans le cadre du fonds Tocque- ville Value Euro ISR, dont la perfor- mance en 2025 a atteint +33,99% (Part I), dans la continuité de l’évolutiondu fonds sur cinq ans (1) . En dépit d’une succession de thèmes prisés par les in- vestisseurs, comme l’engouement pour l’hormone GLP-1dans le secteur pharmaceutique, l’impact des droitsdedouaneou l’essorde l’IA, le facteur momen- tum a perdu de sa vigueur par rapport à la période 2017-2020. Les Bourses européennes évoluent dés- ormaisde façonplus erratique, conférant davantage de valeur au travail de stock-picking. L’année 2025 a été fortement impactéepar l’annonce de l’administration américaine sur les droits de douane ( Liberation Day du 2 avril 2025), notre stra- tégie a selon nous bien résisté dans la baisse du marché, tout en étant capable de suivre la hausse lors du rebond violent qui a suivi. Nous avons mené une gestion active en entrant 12 titres, et en sortant 12 autres en 2025, pour l’équivalent de 35% de l’actif du portefeuille au total. Les sorties ont étémotivées essentiellement par des objectifs de cours atteints (à titred’exemple, Danone ou Smurfit Westrock) mais aussi par l’affaiblisse- ment des catalyseurs (notamment Vonovia, Vinci ouAmundi). Les entrées ont permis notamment de faire évoluer nos positions en valeurs bancaires, avec Erste Group qui remplace Banco BPM. Enfin, des titres de l’univers du service aux entreprises (tel que Publicis) donnent une teinte complémentaire au portefeuille. Lire lesmultiples de valorisation Par définition, le processus d’investissement de Tocqueville Value Euro ISR est centré sur l’analyse des multiples de valorisation. La construction du portefeuille apour objet de rendre compatible notre lecture du régime de marché avec l’univers des ti- tres jugés décotés, à la suitedu travailmenépar l’en- semble de l’équipe du pôle Value de LFDE. Depuis près de deux ans, nous avons focalisé notre attention sur le concept de l’économie productive en favorisant les actifs tangibles et en évitant les biens de consommation. Désormais, nous ajoutons et adaptons nos choixde valeurs autour duprincipe du retour aux actionnaires, quels que soient les do- maines d’activité des titres. Les entreprises industrielles, de services ou finan- cières sont concernées. En 2026, nous porterons une attentionparticulière à la lisibilité et à la visibilité de l’allocation du capital des titres en portefeuille. 1) LFDE. Performance 2025 au 31.12.2025 : Part I +33,99%, Part R +33,02%,contre+23,70%pourl’indicederéférenceMSCIEMUNET RETURNEUR.Performanceannualiséesur5ansau31.12.2025:Part I+14,91%,PartR+14,09%,contre+11,45%pourl’indicederéférence. L’investissement Value , une stratégie de cœur de portefeuille T+3: 1993 :introduction ofdigitalmeans T+5: PostWarEra- Economicboom T+2: From2014intheEU From2014intheUS T+1: 1920s:Thanks tolowvolumes oftrade T+1: 2023 :India&Russia 2024 :USA,Canadan Mexico,Argentina 2027:EU/EEA