Agefi Luxembourg - octobre 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 12 Octobre 2025 Économie J usqu’à présent, les droits de douane américains n’ont pas déraillé la croissance écono- mique mondiale demeurée sta- ble durant l’été, affirment Guy Wagner (cf. portrait) et son équipe dans leur dernier rapport d’analyse sur les marchés finan- ciers, les « Highlights ». « Aux États-Unis, la progression de la consommation domestique ne semble toujours pas s’essouf- fler,bienqu’ellesoitdeplusenplus tirée par les ménages les plus for- tunés », dit GuyWagner, chief in- vestment officer (CIO) de BLI - Banque de Luxembourg Invest- ments. « Les dépenses des entreprises évoluent également à des niveaux robustes, grâce notamment aux investissementsdans ledomainede l’intelligence artificielle. » En zone euro, la croissance économique est plus fai- ble, surtout dans le secteur manufacturier. « Les es- poirs de reprise reposent sur l’impact positif de l’augmentation des dépenses publiques alle- mandes auplus tardàpartir dudébut de l’année prochaine. » EnChine, lespressionsdéflationnistespersistent en raison de la faiblesse de la demande domes- tique, de l’absencede reprisedumarché immo- bilier et des surcapacités de production dans le secteur industriel. Au Japon, les exportations en août ont baissé en glissement annuel pour le quatrième mois consécutif en raison des droits de douane américains, la crois- sance du PIB reposant désor- mais principalement sur les épaules du consommateur do- mestique. L’inflation aux États-Unis s’est stabilisée autour de 3% Aux États-Unis, l’inflation s’est stabilisée autour de 3 %, « se montrant peu impactée par les droits de douane jusqu’à présent, mais restant toutefois au- delàde l’objectif de 2%de laRéserve fédérale », pré- cise l’économiste luxembourgeois. Ainsi, le taux d’inflation global a augmenté de 2,7 % à 2,9 % en août, tandis que l’inflationhors énergie et alimenta- tion est restée stable à 3,1 %. En zone euro, l’inflation reste proche de l’objectif de la Banque centrale européenne, le taux d’inflation global passant de 2,0%à 2,2%en septembre. La Réserve fédérale américaine réduit ses taux directeurs de 25 points de base Conformément aux attentes, la Réserve fédérale a baissé la fourchette cibledu tauxdes fonds fédéraux de 25 points de base à 4 % - 4,25 %. Etant donné le niveau toujours restrictif des taux d’intérêt et les fai- bles créations d’emplois des derniers mois, son chef Jerome Powell a jugé que, dans le cadre de sondou- blemandat,l’objectifdupleinemploiétaitdavantage à risque que celui de l’inflation à 2%. En zone euro, laBCEamaintenu ses tauxdirecteurs inchangés, estimant que leprocessusdedésinflation en place depuis octobre 2022 touche à sa fin. Lesmarchés actions poursuivent leur progression vers de nouveaux sommets Enseptembre,lesmarchésactionsontpoursuivileur progression vers de nouveaux sommets. GuyWag- ner : «Une fois encore, ladynamiqueaété largement portée par la thématique de l’intelligence artificielle après l’annonce d’Oracle d’une croissance spectacu- laire de son infrastructure de centres de données au cours des prochaines années. Cette vague d’opti- misme s’est rapidement propagée auxmarchés asia- tiques, galvanisés à leur tour par les annonces d’investissementsmassifsdesgéantstechnologiques chinois dans ce domaine. » Dans ce contexte, l’indicemondial MSCIAll Coun- tryWorld IndexNet Total Return, exprimé eneuros, a gagné 3,2 % sur le mois. Sur le plan régional, le S&P 500 (enUSD), le STOXXEurope 600 (en EUR), leTopix (en JPY) et l’indiceMSCI EmergingMarkets (enUSD) ont tous progressé. « Sur le plan sectoriel, lesmeilleures performances sont revenues à la tech- nologie, aux services de communication et à la consommation discrétionnaire, tandis que l’immo- bilier, la santé et la consommationdebaseont accusé des reculs. » Les droits de douane américains n’ont pas déraillé la croissance mondiale jusqu’à présent A group of European Union finance ministers gathered in Luxembourg on October 9 for the third mee- ting of the European Competiti- veness Laboratory (LAB), where they made progress on an ini- tial joint project and discussed new initiatives to deepen eco- nomic integration across the EU. The LAB serves as a testing ground where Member States can voluntarily experiment ini- tiatives on a small scale to boost EU integration and competiti- veness, with a view to roll them out EU-wide. Ministers and senior officials from 20 EU countriesalongsidetheEUCommissioner forFinancialServicesandtheSavingsand Investments Union, Maria Luís Albuquerque, met at the invitation of the Spanish and Luxembourg Ministers, Carlos Cuerpo and Gilles Roth, ahead of the Eurogroup. European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, and EuropeanStabilityMechanismmanaging director,PierreGramegna,alsoparticipat- ed in themeeting. Participants reviewed progress on the LAB´s inaugural project, the "Finance Europe" Label that was introduced in June by France, Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The Label aims to help savers identify investment products that support EU companies. Participants shared steps taken at national level to operationalise the Label. The discussions highlighted the mem- bers´ shared commitment to further advance the Savings and Investments Union and to take pragmatic steps to unlock the capital to finance the EU strategic priorities. During themeeting, ministers agreed to further explore a joint proposal to create an EU-wide securitisation platform. As a valuable complement to the EU Commission´sreformofthesecuritisation regulatory framework, the platform would facilitate the standardisation of processes across jurisdictions, and allow the pooling of assets, making securitisa- tion economically viable and increase financingoptions forEuropeanbusiness- es. The next meeting of the European Competitiveness Lab will take place in the first quarter of 2026. Gilles Roth, Minister of Finance: "The LAB is proving to be a powerful driver of European cooperation. By advancing a second joint initiative, we are turning shared ambition into practical tools that help unlock capital and boost Europe's competitiveness." Carlos Cuerpo, Spanish Minister of Economy, Trade and Business: "Today marks akeymilestone for theLAB.We're makingconcreteprogresstowardsatruly coordinated economic union—one that protectsEurope'sprosperityandstrength- ensour sharedwayof life.Wemust build on this momentum and invest in our greatest strategic asset: Europe itself." List of countries representedat themeet- ing on October 9: Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain. Source : Ministry of Finance Third meeting of the European Competitiveness Laboratory (LAB) MinistersAdvance on "Finance Europe" ©MFIN E YLuxembourg has reported 10%growth for the fiscal year ending 30 June 2025, with revenues of €457million. Over the past five financial years, the firm has almost doubled its sizewith double-digit growth every year, and an average compounded growth rate of 12%. A lookback Says Olivier Coekelbergs, CountryMan- aging Partner of EY Luxembourg from 2020 to 2025, “When I beganmy journey asCountryManagingPartner,wesetour- selves an ambitious goal, to achievemar- ketgrowth,growourtalent,andimprove client centricity. I am incredibly proud to share that, over the past five years, we havenearlydoubledoursizetoover2,300 employees, and89 to150Partners. Out of a total of 74 Partner promotions over five years, we achieved a 35% female ratio showing our focus on gender diversity. This continuous level of growth is even moremeaningful when you consider the unprecedented challengeswe have faced during this time, from the global pan- demic and the shift to remote work, to geopolitical conflicts and the rapid emer- gence of artificial intelligence. Through it all,wehaveremainedconsistent,focused, and resilient.” Assurance: strong growth of 11% “We are pleasedwith the 11%growth in our Assurance practice this year,” says Michel Feider, Partner, EY Luxembourg Assurance Leader. This marks the prac- tice’s 16th consecutive year of growth, a testament to the resilienceanddedication of the Firm’s teams. Consulting: 6%increase in revenues Laurent Moscetti, Partner, EY Luxem- bourgConsultingLeader, shares, “These are very complex times. The ESG trans- formation agenda has slowed down, in- vestments in largeprojects have reduced or have beendelayed,while on the other end the technologyagenda carriedbyAI generates a lot of initiatives in Luxem- bourg. The latter is super promising, but the difficulty lies in the complexity of its implementation, managing the adop- tion, the governance and compliance all at once. Despite this difficult context, we managed to growby 6%.” Tax: 9%collective growth “EY Luxembourg’s Tax practice has achieved a 9% revenue increase this year, representing strong growth propelled by all our sub-service lines,” comments Christian Schlesser, Partner, EY Luxem- bourgTaxLeader. Themarket environment continues tobe challenging, characterized by uncer- tainty and the quest of clients to trans- form their tax support functions. “Our success is particularly fueled by the ex- pansion of accounting, compliance and reporting services, operational tax ser- vices, and our thriving indirect and di- rect tax compliance and reporting practice,” continues Schlesser. Strategy andTransactions: remarkable 12%growth The Strategy and Transactions (S&T) services practice has demonstrated re- markable resilience and growth in fiscal year 2025, achieving a revenue growth of 12% and marked by significant achievements that underscore the ser- vice line’s commitment to excellence. Looking forward to FY26 Reflecting on past years, EY Luxem- bourg’s newCountryManaging Partner, AlbanAubréecomments,“Iwanttothank Olivierforhisexceptionalleadershipsince 2020.HehastakentheFirmtonewheights andbuilt themomentumwe need for the future. My priority will be to build on Olivier’s legacy.” Alban Aubrée also comments on now beinganexcitingtimeforEY’sglobalbusi- ness: “Over thepast year, our global strat- egyhas evolvedsharply tomakeEYeven more connected thanbefore.” “Teaming for growth” Looking ahead, Alban Aubrée has laid out a roadmap designed to unlock the Firm’s entrepreneurial spirit and em- power teams tomake faster, smarter de- cisions. The Firm plans to intensify its efforts to generate significant and sus- tainable growth, attractingand retaining top talent,with substantial investment in people and innovation. Culture and tal- ent will sit at the heart of his strategy. EYLuxembourg closes the 2025 financial year on a high note AlbanAubrée &Olivier Coekelbergs ©EY