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By Guy ERTZ, Chief Investment Officer, BGL BNP Paribas
The Brent crude oil price surged temporarily to above $ 100 per barrel on Monday March 9th and meanwhile rallied by more than 70% since the beginning of the year. The European gas price almost doubled to € 60 but fell back to 52 recently. In the US, gas prices rose much less. The military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran is further escalating and could last for longer. So, the question is again about the vulnerability of major economies to energy price spikes.
The economic consequences of higher oil prices depend not only on the magnitude of the increase but also on the price level and, especially, on the duration of the energy shock. Indeed, economic agents base their decisions on...
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