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By Thomas COSTERG, Senior US Economist, Pictet Wealth Management
In spite of massive policy responses to the covid-19 crisis in the US and Europe, we believe inflation will stay low
By the end of 2021 (our forecast horizon) GDP levels in both the US and the euro area will be lower than at the end of 2019. In other words, while the extent of the recession – and especially its exact depth in Q2 – is still relatively uncertain, we see a lasting impact on the economy with only a gradual recovery of lost economic activity.
Fiscal measures are cushioning the impact of the virus-containment policies on employment, production capacity and consumer spending, but not entirely offsetting it. The gradual reopening of Western...
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