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By Anna STUPNYTSKA, Global Economist at Fidelity International
Polling suggests that Marine Le Pen will secure a place in the French presidential second round election, but is then likely to lose to either François Fillon or Emmanuel Macron. Global Economist, Anna Stupnytska, notes the probability of unexpected outcomes in French elections is lower than the US election and Brexit referendum. Even if Le Pen won, she would probably fall short of a National Assembly majority, curtailing her ability to pass legislation, including launching a ‘Frexit’ vote.
Binary outcome
Whatever happens in the first round on April 23 and the second round run-off between the two leading candidates on May 7, the outcome will be binary. A Le...
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