A mix of geopolitical tensions, threats of trade wars, and recent events in Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia have had investors wondering whether another emerging markets meltdown is on the cards. We think the latest incidents are significant but will remain somewhat isolated, although we would keep a close eye on developments in China which now holds the key to emerging markets’ fortunes, rather like the dollar did in past times of stress.
Turkey finally hikes rates
While the 300 basis point hike by the Turkish central bank on 23 May was more than the market was expecting, it may not be enough to stabilise the lira, especially if the dollar strengthens from here. But it is not just dollar strength that is weighing the lira down. The...
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